Seattle embraced the global spotlight and rode a wave of economic euphoria when the FIFA World Cup came to town this summer, but according to new voter data out Tuesday, the city let that momentum slip away just as downtown businesses and major tech employers grapple with an ongoing economic squeeze.
The eleventh edition of The Index, a semiannual survey tracking voter sentiment commissioned by the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, reveals a sharp erosion in public confidence regarding the city’s economic trajectory.
According to polling of 700 Seattle voters conducted from Sept. 23 to Oct. 1 by public opinion research firm Fulcrum Strategic Group, 68% believe the city’s economy is getting weaker, 22% think it’s staying the same, and just 10% say it’s stronger.
While voters point to persistent quality-of-life concerns like public safety, homelessness and affordability, the findings underscore growing anxiety over Seattle’s business climate, at a time when major tech employers continue to evaluate their regional footprint and shift jobs across Lake Washington.
Seattle Metro Chamber President and CEO Joe Nguyen said the World Cup brought an energy and excitement downtown that was real and positive. But after a few months, there’s been no sustained honeymoon, and 65% of voters feel Seattle is losing positive momentum on public safety and quality of life.
“We demonstrated as a region what is possible when we all work together, and folks are already feeling that shift away,” Nguyen said during a media briefing Tuesday.
While chief concerns in the survey center on crime and public safety, economic health follows closely behind. In addition to widespread pessimism about the city’s overall trajectory, 71% of respondents agree that businesses are closing down or leaving for nearby cities because the cost of doing business in Seattle has gotten too high. Furthermore, 95% of those surveyed say it is difficult for small businesses to operate in the city.
When it comes to major employers — the tech giants and large corporations such as Amazon that anchor the regional economy and bear the brunt of taxes like the city’s JumpStart payroll levy — the survey reveals a striking disconnect.
The survey found 70% of voters recognize large businesses as essential to Seattle’s success, defying the narrative that the local electorate is anti-business. Andrew Thibault, partner at survey conductor Fulcrum Strategic Group, called it “the most interesting section” in the whole survey.
“Voters here deeply understand that their quality of life is connected to the health of the business environment and our ability to afford the things that we want to afford, like transit and schools, and environmental protections,” Thibault said. “All of those depend on a healthy business environment.”
But a significant knowledge gap persists around tax contributions. Voters estimated on average that large businesses pay just 37% of the city’s total tax revenue, with three-quarters believing that figure sits below 50%. In actuality, businesses pay 68% — more than two-thirds — of all city taxes, according to a recent tax analysis from the Chamber.
Underlying economic anxiety is playing out directly in City Hall’s budget debates. As major employers and tech giants navigate a shifting economic landscape — including recent reports showing downtown Seattle shedding 13,000 jobs in a single year while neighboring Bellevue’s tech hub expanded — voters are demanding a tighter rein on city spending.
The Index reveals that 66% of Seattle voters distrust the city to spend tax dollars responsibly, and nearly eight in 10 support requiring City Hall to prove existing spending is producing results before asking residents or major employers to pay more.
Those sentiments carry heavy weight as the city grapples with its budget. Facing what officials call “seismic shifts” in the tech sector, Mayor Katie Wilson’s proposed budget attempts to close a massive deficit through spending cuts while freezing the rates for corporate levies like the JumpStart payroll tax.
For Nguyen and the Chamber, the message from voters is clear: City Hall must focus on tangible delivery with existing resources rather than continuous policy shifts and progressive tax increases.
Pointing to the city’s reliance on core revenue streams like business and occupation (B&O), sales, and JumpStart taxes, Nguyen emphasized the risk of over-targeting a concentrated corporate base.
“Finagling with it too much creates a problem where the people who are reliant upon paying the taxes are also the ones being targeted,” Nguyen said. “So if they leave, it creates a multiplier effect in the wrong direction.”