Which team gets a much-needed bounce-back win after a bye week?
Both of the Colorado State and Texas State football programs are looking for a rebound after tough losses to begin Pac-12 action.
Both had a bye to try and right the wrongs.
What happens when the two meet for the first time on Oct. 15 in a rare Thursday game?
Here's a look at what we're watching for and a prediction of the final score:
How different does CSU's defense look, perform?
What will this changed defense look like? To the common eye, it won't be drastically different. You can't change a scheme overnight. Jim Mora has said as much.
But can the move with Tyson Summers out as defensive coordinator lead to a change in results? CSU has been carved up in the last three games, allowing more than 50 points per game in that stretch.
Kenny McClendon is now the defensive play-caller. Will Mora have his hands in what the defense does as a sort of play-calling advisor to McClendon?
Will the Rams try and simplify to allow players to react faster and more instinctively? It's looked like an apprehensive group and simplicity could help.
What even would success look like? It starts, of course, with shaving the points allowed down below 50 and, hopefully for the Rams, by a good bit.
Texas State is incredibly dynamic offensively. The Bobcats average 532 yards and 35 points per game.
Bobcat QB Brad Jackson is electric. He's thrown for 1,226 yards (245 per game), 13 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for another 186 and a touchdown. Top running back Torrance Burgess Jr. averages 7.3 yards per carry. Receiver Beau Sparks has battled injury but is now healthy and one of the top threats in the Pac-12.
CSU keeping Texas State at or below that scoring average would be some level of a success.
Can CSU's defense start winning some early downs?
The awful defensive stats have been repeated at length. You probably know the gist by now. CSU is 137th in FBS in total defense and 133rd in scoring defense and on and on.
Want some more damning stats that get into the heart of why CSU has been so bad? Opponents are averaging 6.29 yards per carry on first-down runs. The Rams have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on first-down plays and 22 rushes (out of 100) of 10 or more yards.
More: What will look different about CSU’s defense after Jim Mora’s shakeup?
How about passing? Opponents are completing 75% of first-down passes with 17 completions of 15 or more yards.
In total, CSU is allowing on average more than 7 yards per first-down play.
Defenses win by putting offenses in uncomfortable situations. CSU's opponents have been living in five-star resort levels of comfort.
If CSU wants to turn the defense around, it must start on first down.
How can a CSU offense battling injuries attack?
OK, enough about the defense. Normally the starting and star QB being out injured would be the one and only main topic of conversation around a program.
It's a statement about how bad CSU's defense has been that Hauss Hejny's injury is somewhat of a subplot. The CSU QB was hurt Week 3 early in the game against BYU and hasn't played since.
He's questionable against Texas State and K'saan Farrar is likely to make his third start in a row. Under Farrar, the offense has been solid. It maybe hits some in-game inconsistencies, but all around the group has done most of the job required.
And that's while battling big injuries beyond just Hejny. The offensive line continues to have players in-and-out, with multiple potential starters missing each game. For all the mixing and matching required, that group has held up well.
Leading receiver RJ Vick was hurt last game and is unlikely to play at Texas State.
Running back Mel Brown left last game and had to go to the hospital for a precautiounary check, but he's been practicing and should play.
It will be interesting to see how CSU may attack. Texas State is dead last in FBS in passing defense, allowing 300 a game through the air. The Bobcats are pretty good against the run, allowing 124 yards per game (48th in FBS).
CSU has been dynamic in the air even with Hejny out and will surely look for some big plays but may try and start with the run game via Brown and Durell Robinson.
If the Rams can establish the run, it helps dictate the pace, protects the defense and opens up the pass game.
Colorado State vs. Texas State score prediction
Texas State 35, Colorado State 31.
It's tempting to lean into an upset here. Texas State is a two-touchdown favorite but the Bobcats are still largely unproven and their lone Pac-12 game saw them suffer a bad collapse in a defeat to San Diego State.
Surely, Mora and CSU will get the defense solidified a bit, right?
I think yes, to a point. But I also think Texas State's offense is very good and CSU's injuries on offense are worrying. Those injuries limit CSU's explosiveness just enough to worry the Rams won't win a shootout.
It's closer than projected, but CSU's defense is still too vulnerable.
Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: What we're watching for and prediction for CSU at Texas State