Braid: A useless referendum that leaves the UCP packed with separatists

That referendum wasn’t worth $70 million of taxpayer money.

It wasn’t worth the anguish, the division, the fear that stalked Alberta for months.

It wasn’t worth the false weakness conveyed to delighted American imperialists.

It wasn’t worth the condescending national commentary that explained us to ourselves.

It was the most egregious political hoax inflicted on the Alberta public since Social Credit printed funny money.

That cost of $70 million or more (past Elections Alberta boss Glen Resler’s estimate) merely confirmed what virtually every pollster has been saying for nothing.

A heavy majority of Albertans — at least 75 per cent — want nothing to do with independence.

Indeed, a good portion of the “separatist” vote — about 25 per cent — wasn’t cast by separatists at all.

Many of those voters adopted the “send Ottawa a message” strategy.

In the dying days, the separatist leaders knew they were cooked. So they openly urged people who aren’t separatist at all, merely angry, to vote for a full referendum.

What, then, is the genuine separatist vote in Alberta?

David Coletto of Abacus Data polled on that and found that only one-third of the “referendum” voters truly want Alberta independence.

The convinced separatist vote in Alberta is about eight per cent.

They are, however, very over-represented in rural Alberta and hence the United Conservative Party.

That’s why all this money was blown — to give Premier Danielle Smith leverage within her own tent.

Are Albertans fed up with it yet?

Have they had enough of a government whose policy, actions and reactions are driven by a tiny minority of Alberta opinion?

A government propelled by UCP membership that polls show is half-separatist, wildly at odds with the wider population?

Never short on bluster, the self-styled leaders still vow to seize the party levers and usurp Smith.

Jeff Rath said “the next phase for us moving forward is an institutional phase where we move forward to take control back of our party, which is the United Conservative Party.

“And we will form government, period.”

Rath said they lost because “everything was stacked against us.”

That would include nearly 80 per cent of Alberta voters. A very large stack.

It sounds like empty rhetoric the day after the referendum thumping.

But hard-line separatists will still be welcomed, even treasured in the UCP. They will have as much respect as they did before this defeat.

We know this because party president Rob Smith (no relation) said in a recent post to members:

“Your opinion about federalism vs. independence and how you vote on referendum question 10 . . . will never have an impact on your eligibility to remain or join the United Conservative Party.”

He referred obliquely to the “discriminatory musing” of a former premier (Jason Kenney, who calls the separatist leaders “extremist.”)

“Take a look at our current membership rules on our website,” this Smith said.

“It doesn’t require that you pledge your allegiance to either federalism or secession.”

Premier Smith knows that if she kicks these people out, they become a genuine separatist party.

That means the NDP wins the next election.

The problem goes back to the UCP leadership race where Smith sought support of extremists who cost Kenney his job.

She lured them with her pledge of sovereignty within a united Canada. It looked close enough to separatism.

And four years later, here we are.

I can’t help recalling, with growing nostalgia, how former Premier Peter Lougheed handled separatists during the anti-Ottawa upheavals of the 1980s.

He said he understood their anger, but sympathy was all they got. He wouldn’t let them anywhere near his Progressive Conservative Party.

They petered out eventually, under the banners of Western Canada Concept and Western Canada Federation.

Smith welcomed the separatists, and today she’s still stuck with the party problem of her own devising.

A performative referendum on her dilemma wasn’t worth $70 million. It isn’t worth 70 cents.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

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