Diesel Prices & Freight Trends: What’s Driving the Market in Q4?

Craig Fuller dives deep into the latest SONAR data, revealing how contract rates are climbing past recession highs, spot rates are trending up towards peak, and why demand isn’t the primary driver of current market volume. Get the essential insights on diesel prices and tender rejections affecting your supply chain.

Contract rates have climbed to their highest levels since the freight recession ended, reaching an index reading of 274 on a seasonally adjusted basis — well above where they stood over the prior two years — signaling that shippers are locking in higher committed rates even as the broader market searches for a peak-season catalyst.

The development matters to carriers and brokers because contract rates catching up to spot rates suggests tightening supply-demand conditions, though the market has yet to deliver the sustained surge that would confirm a true peak-season breakout. Spot rates accelerated to all-time highs earlier in 2025 but have since cooled, and have only recently begun trending upward again heading into November.

Diesel prices are providing little relief. Prices topped $6.50 per gallon — an all-time record — before pulling back modestly. Craig Fuller cited uncertainty around a reported Russia supply deal and ongoing drone strikes on Russian refineries as factors muddying the outlook, along with discussions of a potential U.S. export ban that has also weighed on diesel prices. “We’re seeing it drop a little bit, but not much,” Fuller said. “Not a whole lot of relief.”

“As Arrive Logistics pointed out in their market update, their summary update, they don’t believe that demand is driving the overall freight market. It is really related to capacity and really relative supply and demand.” — Craig Fuller

Freight volumes tell a more cautious story. After strong year-over-year momentum in the first half of 2025 — when volumes ran above both 2024 and 2023 levels — the market has since slipped below those comparable periods. Fuller attributed the softening partly to AI data center-related freight shifts, but also to unusual drag in food and beverage, driven by higher inflation, reduced SNAP benefits, and GLP-1 medications curbing consumption.

The tender rejection index sits at 1,373, elevated compared to freight-recession lows and above year-ago levels, but not at the robust readings the market would need to confirm peak season has arrived. Fuller noted the index heated up meaningfully in June before cooling, and said the industry is watching for another leg higher. “Everyone is looking for this number to heat up, and that’s when we know we’re at peak season,” he said.

With November approaching, the freight market remains in a wait-and-see posture — contract rates are firming, diesel is still historically elevated, and capacity utilization is tighter than a year ago, but no single data point yet confirms that peak-season volumes have materialized.

• Contract rates hit a seasonally adjusted index of 274, breaking above freight-recession highs and closing the gap with spot rates.
• Diesel prices pulled back from an all-time high above $6.50 per gallon, but meaningful relief remains elusive amid supply uncertainty.
• The tender rejection index stands at 1,373 — above year-ago levels but still short of the readings needed to signal peak season has arrived.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.