▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Foreign Investors' 199 Trillion Won Exit Erodes Buyback Support: The KOSPI closed at 6,384.24, down 241.69 points, or 3.65%, from the previous session, breaking below the 6,400 level for the first time in two months despite Samsung Electronics' (005930.KS) record quarterly performance of 107 trillion won in third-quarter operating profit. Following Samsung Electronics, SK hynix's (000660.KS) share buyback program is also expected to conclude around the 20th, meaning a key source of buying support is about to disappear. Analysts said they expect a gradual, square-root-shaped recovery rather than a swift V-shaped rebound.
■ Microsoft's Maia 300 Points to 2.7-Fold Jump in Domestic HBM Demand: Microsoft unveiled Maia 300, its third-generation AI accelerator, raising HBM content per rack to 768 units from 288, an increase of about 2.7 times, and declared it would build gigawatt-scale Maia Azure infrastructure. Because SK hynix supplied HBM3E for the previous Maia 200, the market is focused on whether the HBM4 benefits from Maia 300 will flow to domestic memory makers.
■ AMD, Microsoft Accelerate Push for Five-Year HBM Contracts With Samsung, SK hynix: AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su visited South Korea for the first time in seven months, meeting in succession with executives at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, while Andrew Wall, who heads Microsoft's Maia program, stressed that "trust relationships that allow you to secure volumes five years in advance are important." As competition to lock up HBM supply chains intensifies, the negotiating leverage of domestic memory makers is being substantially strengthened.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
1. Foreign Investors Sell 199 Trillion Won in KOSPI Shares as Buyback Shield Disappears
Key points: The KOSPI closed at 6,384.24, down 241.69 points, or 3.65%, with cumulative net selling by foreign investors this year reaching 199.108 trillion won. Despite Samsung Electronics' record third-quarter operating profit of 107 trillion won, market attention has shifted to whether earnings growth can continue beyond next year, with analysts noting that the slowdown in domestic growth is steeper than in the United States, Taiwan and Japan. Following Samsung Electronics, SK hynix has completed about 90% of its buyback program, which is expected to end around the 20th, raising concerns about further downward pressure as this source of buying support fades. Analysts said that for the market to regain momentum, interest rates and oil prices must stabilize and the market must gain confidence that chipmakers can sustain earnings growth next year.
2. Microsoft Unveils Maia 300 With More HBM, Boosting Demand for Samsung and SK hynix by 2.7 Times
Key points: Microsoft unveiled Maia 300, its third-generation AI accelerator, increasing HBM4 to eight units per accelerator from six HBM3E units in the previous model, and raising the number of accelerators per rack to 96 from 48. As a result, HBM per rack surged to 768 units from 288, an increase of about 2.7 times, while rack-level bandwidth jumped more than fivefold to 1,728 terabytes per second from 341 terabytes per second. Microsoft also declared it would build gigawatt-scale Azure infrastructure deploying millions of Maia units, countering Google's plan to produce 5 million TPUs. Because SK hynix HBM was used in the earlier Maia 200, the market is watching the possibility that domestic memory makers will emerge as HBM4 suppliers for Maia 300.
3. Microsoft's Maia Chief: "HBM Is Scarce, So We Are Securing Volumes Five Years Out"
Key points: Andrew Wall, who heads Microsoft's Maia program, said in a video interview with Seoul Economic Daily that "the HBM industry is very limited," stressing the importance of building trust relationships that allow supply volumes to be secured five years in advance. AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su also visited South Korea for the first time in seven months, meeting in succession with Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun and SK hynix President Kwak Noh-jung, and said that "mid- to long-term partnerships of three to five years or more are needed." Also drawing attention was the fact that SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and Kwak each discussed additional HBM cooperation with Bill Gates and Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella in the United States this year. As big tech firms compete to secure long-term HBM supply, the negotiating leverage of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is expected to strengthen further.
[Reference News for Stock Investors]
4. With Lockup Lifted, Additional SK hynix ADR Issuance Comes Into View
Key points: The 90-day lockup on SK hynix ADRs expired on the 7th, making additional ADR issuance, new share issuance and conversion of underlying shares legally possible. With the ADR premium over domestic underlying shares at 40.42%, analysts said there is no clear way to narrow the gap other than expanding the floating supply. With the buyback program expected to end around the 20th, observers said guidance on additional share cancellations or an ADR expansion could be mentioned at the third-quarter earnings announcement expected on the 27th. Since Chairman Chey Tae-won signaled that "if investor returns are good and the share price is stable, additional ADRs can be issued," whether a concrete plan is disclosed around the earnings release has emerged as a variable for the stock's direction.
5. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song: "Inflation Will Stay Above 2% for Some Time"
Key points: Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said at a parliamentary audit at the National Assembly on the 12th that the inflation rate would remain above the 2% target for a considerable period. With the central bank having raised its base rate in two consecutive moves in July and August, the governor maintained that any further increase would be decided based on a comprehensive assessment of prices, the economy and financial stability. Next year's budget bill is estimated to add 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth and 0.06 percentage points to inflation, which would lift next year's growth rate to 3.4% and inflation to 2.36%. On the semiconductor industry, he said the current upturn could continue at least through next year.
6. Money Floods Into Bond Funds, With 1.6 Trillion Won in Four Days
Key points: Bond funds drew net inflows of 1.5911 trillion won over four trading sessions from Oct. 1 to 7, already exceeding last month's full-month net inflow of 1.1769 trillion won. Domestic bond funds accounted for 1.5379 trillion won, or 96.7% of the total, while short-duration bond ETFs attracted 922.1 billion won. A major factor was the easing of government bond supply pressure as the government cut treasury bond issuance by 5 trillion won this month and pursued a 3.5 trillion won buyback. Global bond funds also drew $33.8 billion (about 45 trillion won) last week, the largest amount in 18 weeks, pointing to a strengthening preference for safe assets.
