The College Football Playoff is on the verge of expanding again. Things have been trending that way for over a year, but it appears that white smoke is on the near horizon for yet another postseason change that will see the field double in size as soon as the 2027 season.
It speaks to the absurdity of college sports at this moment that it’s going to be entirely possible that a class of 2023 athlete could have played in a four-team College Football Playoff, a 12-team tournament and a 24-team edition next year. While some will lament the negative impact this has on the regular season or the watered-down games it may produce every December, this train is not slowing down on the tracks anytime soon.
Now, The Eliminator is normally in a position to cast out teams for the playoff chase, but with the move to 24 coming soon, it felt prudent to examine the impact of what that would do to the current 2026 season to illustrate what we’re in store for in future years.
First off, it’s true that more teams would be more involved in the CFP conversation deeper into the campaign, but the quality of such schools is going to be slightly questionable at best given the actual play on the field from some programs who are theoretically alive for the playoff. It’s also worth noting that who remains in the running for a spot in the bigger field is overwhelmingly the schools you would expect: Power 4 teams who in essence receive a get-out-of-jail-free card for at least two losses.
All told, 26 more teams are alive in a 24-team format going into Week 7 than there would be in the current setup, two-thirds of which (17 teams) hail from the Power 4. That equates to roughly 88% of power-conference schools and Notre Dame still holding out playoff hopes (60 out of 68), compared to where we currently stand with just 43 Power 4 schools looking viable for the postseason tournament.
Sure, there are a handful of cases in the Group of 6 where teams would have a chance for increased access (see UNLV) or have a greater margin for error (such as James Madison or Boise State) when they simply need to finish in the selection committee’s top 24. Still, if you have any questions about who this expansion is really for, the numbers paint a clear picture.
With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of the field in the 12- vs. 24-team formats and who is/isn’t alive for a berth.
The College Football Playoff field
Alive for a CFP bid, 12-team format
55 teams, 40% of FBS
- ACC (9)
- Big 12 (10)
- Big Ten (11)
- SEC (12)
- Independent (1)
- American (4)
- Conference USA (0)
- MAC (1)
- Mountain West (3)
- Pac-12 (2)
- Sun Belt (2)
Alive for a CFP bid, 24-team format
81 teams, 59% of FBS
- ACC (14)
- Big 12 (16)
- Big Ten (15)
- SEC (14)
- Independent (1)
- American (8)
- Conference USA (1)
- MAC (3)
- Mountain West (4)
- Pac-12 (3)
- Sun Belt (2)
Out of the playoff chase, 12-team format
83 teams, 60% of FBS
- ACC (8)
- Big 12 (6)
- Big Ten (7)
- SEC (4)
- Independent (1)
- American (10)
- Conference USA (10)
- MAC (12)
- Mountain West (7)
- Pac-12 (6)
- Sun Belt (12)
Out of the playoff chase, 24-team format
57 teams, 41% of FBS
- ACC (3)
- Big 12 (0)
- Big Ten (3)
- SEC (2)
- Independent (1)
- American (6)
- Conference USA (9)
- MAC (10)
- Mountain West (6)
- Pac-12 (5)
- Sun Belt (12)
ACC
Alive in 12-team CFP: Clemson, Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Also alive in 24-team CFP: California, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Boston College, California, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse
While it may take some time for expectations to change in the sport, the bigger CFP seems like great news for many coaches on the hot seat like Dave Doeren at NC State or Mike Norvell at Florida State. In the ACC, Louisville looks like another big winner and could conceivably be a threat to win a first-round game if it plays closer to its ceiling instead of the floor. Even with the bigger field though, the ACC remains in the same position in a 24-team world as it is in a 12-teamer with just one viable national title contender in Miami.
Big 12
Alive in 12-team CFP: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Utah
Also alive in 24-team CFP: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
The bigger field and potentially needing to go only 9–3 most years in a conference as closely bunched on the field like the Big 12 means the league stands to benefit greatly from the move to 24. While Colorado and Iowa State would theoretically be able to claim they’re still in the playoff race, it will be interesting to see if that holds water with fan bases who can clearly detect the team they see on Saturdays is a few steps removed from contending for a spot. Given how many coin-flip games there are in the Big 12, however, this could be a notable winner long-term from the expansion given that it takes some of the stakes out of games like the Holy War or upcoming Oklahoma State–Houston to turn them from must wins from a CFP perspective into nice-to-win games.
Big Ten
Alive in 12-team CFP: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Wisconsin
Also alive in 24-team CFP: Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, Washington
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington
When playoff expansion was first announced, it seemed like every commissioner used the example of middling Big Ten teams finishing 9–3 as to who the bigger field would benefit, and they’re not wrong. Just look at the programs who would potentially still be in the running for a first-round game: an Illini team whose defense who couldn’t perform decently if they were playing flag football, Matt Campbell’s Nittany Lions who are not showing many signs of life or a Huskies team under Jedd Fisch who would much rather sim out the rest of this season on the “College Football” video game than play things in real life. Is that a good thing? Well, it is in the eyes of the chief architect of the move to 24, commissioner Tony Pettiti, so we’ll have to see whether or not he is spot on starting next season.
SEC
Alive: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
Also alive in 24-team CFP: South Carolina, Texas A&M
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Going 9–3 in the SEC or even 8–4 with a decent nonconference win is going to likely give you a shot at making the expanded field, much to the delight of the Gamecocks and Aggies. While both fan bases are not thrilled with their head coaches at the moment, perhaps that changes if they know there’s plenty to play for in the postseason and are only a few upsets away from making the cut. Meanwhile, look at the change in potential danger, such as LSU’s expensive roster on thin ice in a 12-team era versus having a bit more leeway with the bigger field. The SEC was one of the few holdouts for most of this expansion process, but the ninth conference game (with the additional losses it creates) and massive spending going on in the league seems to have quickly changed the league’s tune.
Independents
Alive: Notre Dame
Eliminated: UConn
The expanded playoff field will certainly be a boon for the Fighting Irish, which will garner enough crossover games against ACC opponents to where going 9–3 or 8–4 in most seasons should be enough to remain in the committee’s top 24 and in the mix for CFP bids. It should also help out poor UConn, which might have the highest bar in the country to clear when it comes to playoff access in the 12-team format, but would be manageable every once and a while in a 24-team era if its schedule breaks right enough to win double-digit games.
American
Alive in 12-team CFP: Florida Atlantic, Memphis, North Texas, UTSA
Also alive in 24-team CFP: Army, South Florida
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Army, Charlotte, East Carolina, Navy, Rice, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB
Few conferences, save maybe the Pac-12, could stand to benefit more from increased access than the American. On top of regularly getting their champion into the mix, they would have had teams like Navy and North Texas last season firmly on the bubble to potentially get in after they were ranked No. 22 and No. 23 in the committee’s final poll. This year the same would hold true as four more programs would potentially remain in the running to win out at midseason and make the CFP instead of their current position of thinking about a decent bowl matchup. It might be more difficult for these teams to land nonconference games against Power 4 schools moving forward, but that may be a small price to pay if it means some big-time playoff games.
Conference USA
Alive in 12-team CFP: None
Alive in 24-team CFP: Liberty
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky
It’s not absurd to think that a 12–1 Liberty team barely sniffs the CFP this season due to its strength of schedule weighing it down in the Group of 6 race, but in a 24-team era it likely could be one of the last programs to make the field. Sure it might be a tough game on the road against a very good Big Ten or SEC side that would await, but having an opportunity instead of needing to play perfect in the current setup is one of the reasons why a conference like this one is going to support any expansion.
MAC
Alive in 12-team CFP: Western Michigan
Also alive in 24-team CFP: Toledo, UMass
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Ohio, Sacramento State, Toledo, UMass
Toledo and, theoretically at least, UMass would still be alive for a Group of 6 spot and a top 24 ranking in a hypothetical world of an expanded CFP if they win out versus having no shot at present. The MAC already fights to sneak a team into the playoff, but the increased spots would be beneficial in giving teams a bit more of a margin for error if they can pull an early nonconference upset.
Mountain West
Alive in 12-team CFP: Air Force, New Mexico, North Dakota State
Also alive in 24-team CFP: UNLV
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Hawai‘i, Nevada, Northern Illinois, San José State, UNLV, UTEP, Wyoming
UNLV would be a big potential winner if there was a 24-team format this season, where it wouldn’t get dinged as much for losses to a pair of American teams (North Texas and Memphis) who are also trying to secure the current Group of 6 bid. The Rebels would have to still finish 12–2 with a conference title to likely make the expanded field, but that’s more of an opportunity than they would have at the end of this year.
Pac-12
Alive in 12-team CFP: Boise State, Oregon State
Also alive in 24-team CFP: Fresno State
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State, Washington State
The Pac-12 has been insistent that it’s capable of earning the Group of 6 bid every season. Such a goal would become much easier if it only needs to have a team finish with 10 or 11 wins to be inside the top 24 of the committee’s rankings. Compared to the current model, only Fresno State would stand to benefit at this point in the season from having the door open to potentially going 10–2 and making the field, but the one unique thing that could get interesting with the league is the final weekend flex game the conference is instituting. That could be great to potentially snag a bid for some teams in the 24-team era while at the same time it may wind up dealing an unexpected loss that lets another power-conference team slide just ahead of a Pac-12 outfit.
Sun Belt
Alive in 12-team CFP: Georgia State, James Madison
Also alive in 24-team CFP: None
Eliminated in 12-team CFP: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy
The combination of divisional play, lack of decent nonconference wins and just two teams with one or fewer losses going into the midway mark of 2026 means there’s not much of a change with the overall playoff picture in moving from 12 to 24 for the Sun Belt. What expansion does do, to use the current season as an example, is to provide a bit more of a cushion to make the field for a team like James Madison. Not only could both the Dukes and another Group of 6 team make it into the field without much drama on Selection Sunday, but winning out may even provide a small path for an undefeated team from these ranks to host a playoff game. As always, it would come down to how the committee views a team like James Madison at the end of the season, but there’s an understandable benefit for several leagues like this one when it comes to CFP expansion.
PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.
Add us as a preferred source on Google