After six weeks of the 2026 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are sitting at 5-1 and holding down the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Not bad for a team some people were predicting would start the season 0-5.
Now comes the bye week. Personally, I’m not a fan of having it this early, especially with the Bills riding the momentum of a two-win West Coast trip. But there is some good news. No matter what happens around the league this weekend, Buffalo can’t lose its spot as the AFC’s second seed. Of course, the bad news is that the Bills can’t move up to No. 1, either.
The worst-case scenario? New England wins and picks up a half-game on Buffalo in the AFC East. But with two losses already on their record, the Patriots would still be looking up at the Bills in both the division and conference standings.
The best-case scenario? Kansas City loses, dropping the Chiefs to 5-1 and putting them in a tie with Buffalo. But, because the Chiefs would still hold the conference-record tiebreaker, Kansas City would hang on to the AFC’s No. 1 seed… for now.
With all that out of the way, Let’s see who we want winning — and, more importantly, losing — this week.
_____________________________________________________________________________
AFC Standings entering Week 7
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-2)
5. New England Patriots (4-2)
6. Denver Broncos (4-2)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
10. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)
11. New York Jets (2-4)
12. Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
13. Houston Texans (2-4)
14. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
15. Miami Dolphins (0-5)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)
_____________________________________________________________________________
AFC East
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Root For: Chicago Bears
The Patriots are the only team in the AFC East with a realistic shot at catching Buffalo right now, and they’re already just a game behind in the win column. A loss to Chicago would drop New England to 4-3 and give the Bills a little more breathing room in the division without even taking the field.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Root For: Miami Dolphins
Neither team is much of a threat to Buffalo at this point, but somebody has to win this one. The Jets already have two wins, while Miami’s still looking for its first. A Dolphins win would keep the Jets from getting any ideas about making a run at a playoff spot while also nudging Miami away from prime draft position.
_____________________________________________________________________________
The rest of the AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Root For: New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh is one of several AFC teams sitting at 4-2, just a game behind Buffalo in the loss column. The Steelers are also in the middle of a crowded AFC North race. A loss to New Orleans would knock them back a step in both the division and wild-card standings. Plus, it’s an NFC team against an AFC contender.
This one is pretty straightforward.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Root For: Minnesota Vikings
The Colts are sitting at 2-4 and aren’t exactly breathing down Buffalo’s neck. But there’s no reason to help another AFC team get back into the playoff conversation.
A Minnesota win keeps Indianapolis from gaining any ground. Additionally, the Bills play the Vikings in a couple of weeks, so a Minnesota win can help their Strength of Schedule score.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Root For: Cincinnati Bengals
Both teams are chasing playoff spots, but Baltimore is the bigger concern right now. The Ravens are 4-2, while Cincinnati is 3-2.
A Bengals win would pull Baltimore back into the pack and keep another four-win AFC team from gaining ground on Buffalo. Cincinnati would improve its position, but that’s a trade worth making.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Root For: Tennessee Titans
Cleveland currently holds the AFC’s four seed, making this one an easy choice. A loss to Tennessee would drop the Browns to 4-3 and give Buffalo a little more separation from another division leader.
The Titans, meanwhile, are sitting at the bottom of the AFC South. Letting them pick up a second win isn’t going to cause much trouble for the Bills.
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Root For: New York Giants
There’s a small gamble in rooting against Houston. The Bills already beat the Texans this season, so another Houston win would improve Buffalo’s strength of victory. But it would also give the Texans a little life in the AFC playoff race, and there’s no reason to help another team get back into contention.
Buffalo controls its own destiny right now, and as long as the Bills keep taking care of business, they won’t need that tiebreaker anyway. We’ll take the Giants and keep Houston down.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Root For: Arizona Cardinals
Denver is 4-2 and currently holds one of the AFC’s wild-card spots. With the Bills sitting comfortably in second place, there’s no reason to let another potential playoff contender gain ground.
A loss to Arizona would put another game between Buffalo and Denver, and that’s reason enough to pull for the Cardinals.
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Root For: Los Angeles Rams
These are the two teams the Bills just beat on their West Coast trip, so either outcome will help Buffalo’s strength of victory. But the Raiders are still hanging around the AFC wild-card race, while the Rams are safely over in the NFC.
A Los Angeles win gives the Bills the tiebreaker boost without helping another AFC team get closer to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Root For: Seattle Seahawks
This is the big one. Kansas City is the only team ahead of Buffalo in the AFC standings, and a Seahawks win would hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Both the Bills and KC would then be 5-1, although Kansas City would retain the No. 1 seed on the conference-record tiebreaker, but the Bills can take care of that themselves on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo can’t take over the top spot this week, but having the Chiefs lose their cushion would be a pretty good way to spend the bye.
_____________________________________________________________________________
NFC vs NFC games
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Root For: Detroit Lions
The Bills already have a win over Detroit this season, so every Lions win helps Buffalo’s strength of victory. And while Buffalo will travel to Green Bay later this season, the strength-of-victory boost from a Detroit win takes priority over the strength-of-schedule benefit of a Packers win.
Games That Don’t Matter (to the Bills, Anyway)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
_____________________________________________________________________________
Teams on Bye
Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders
_____________________________________________________________________________
There won’t be any Bills football this weekend, but there are still plenty of reasons to keep an eye on the scoreboard. If a few of these games go Buffalo’s way, the bye week might turn out to be pretty productive after all.
Go Bills!