THE WORLD IS now set to exceed 1.5C of global warming, with drastic emissions cuts needed to limit how far temperatures rise and how long they remain above that threshold, a new UN report has warned.
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said in their latest findings that the “lowest possible” overshoot scenario would see warming peak at between 1.7C and 1.8C around the middle of this century before potentially returning to 1.5C or below by 2100.
Reaching that pathway would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
However, fully implementing countries’ existing climate pledges would cut emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.
If current policies continue, the report said warming could reach 2.8C this century and rise further afterwards. Even if all existing national climate pledges and net-zero targets are achieved, warming is projected to reach 2.1C.
“Overshoot is not surrender,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“We can still keep it as small and as short as possible, and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”
The warning follows Ireland’s hottest summer on record, with the national average temperature reaching 16.28C.
Summer 2026 was 1.5C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and narrowly surpassed the previous record, set only last year.
Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2.2% in 2025, according to provisional figures from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
However, emissions were just 14.5% below 2018 levels, leaving the country well short of its legally binding target of a 51% reduction by 2030.
The EPA has said Ireland’s emissions would now need to fall by more than 10% every year until 2030 to meet that target. Emissions fell by a further 0.8% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2025.
UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said every additional fraction of a degree would increase the danger posed by floods, heatwaves and wildfires.
“We must pull out all the stops to minimise peak warming and return to 1.5C by the end of the century,” Andersen said.
“This is possible.”
Unsure of what exactly is happening with the earth’s climate? Check out our FactCheck Knowledge Bank for essential reads and guides to finding good information online.