The Arizona Diamondbacks' 2026 season came with plenty of surprises — some positive and some negative.
Those surprises led, ultimately, to an 86-76 season and a third-straight heartbreaking elimination from postseason contention. The Diamondbacks missed the playoffs in the final weekend of the year once again.
Arguably, they wouldn't have remained in position to contend without a bout of surprisingly strong performances. At the same time, some ill-timed underperformance may have been the difference between October baseball and more disappointment.
With that in mind, these are four Diamondbacks who absolutely need a strong 2027 season — whatever form or shape that season may take.
1: Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte
The most obvious is Ketel Marte. His season was productive, and to argue it was not would simply not be accurate. He hit .249/.316/.432 with 22 home runs and a .748 OPS over 141 games.
But as anyone who has spent time watching Marte would say, this was not his best season. It wasn't close. It wasn't even average, compared to his already-lowered career batting line of .277/.347/.468.
On top of the offensive struggles, Marte became a distraction midseason.
After multiple instances of frustration in previous years, Marte was once again unexpectedly absent, this time during a key road series in Boston. That led to weeks of speculation and drama, and will likely lead to more trade talk this offseason.
Marte cannot be traded without his permission. He has 10-and-5 rights and therefore a full no-trade clause. If he remains a Diamondback, however, he simply has to perform the way he's done in the past.
2: Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly undoubtedly earned his two-year, $40 million contract with six-plus seasons of consistent, high-level starting pitching. From 2019-2025, Kelly held a career 3.77 ERA as a high-end No. 2 starter.
2026 did not look anything like that version of Kelly. He pitched to a 4.94 ERA (plus a 6.35 expected ERA), with a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate and career-high 9.9% walk rate.
Without any notable downtick in velocity or movement, Kelly struggled with consistent location and was lit up for lopsided numbers on more than one occasion.
Kelly will make $22 million in 2027, and if he pitches more than 170 innings he'll receive a vesting option for 2028 that could be worth either $12 million (170-plus innings) or $14 million (185-plus innings). The 38-year-old righty needs a bounce-back, and the Diamondbacks need it from him.
3: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
"But, Eduardo Rodriguez was good in 2026."
He was too good. He went beyond good and into elite, ace-level status for a season. Rodriguez, after two years of ugly, injury-riddled, 5.00-plus-ERA seasons, turned in a 2.89 ERA and 16 wins. He was the best, most consistent arm in the Diamondbacks' rotation.
And with that comes pressure to back it up. Rodriguez now needs to prove that his 2026 excellence was not a fluke, but a glimpse into what he truly can be at his best. His 4.27 expected ERA and 3.89 FIP suggest regression may be looming, so he'll need to silence those concerns.
2027 is the final regular year of his four-year, $80 million deal with Arizona. There is a conditional option for 2028 that will trigger if he throws 150 innings in 2026 and 2027 (or 300 combined); he pitched 189.2 in 2026 — by far the most of his career.
If he does not reach that threshold, 2028 will become a mutual option, something that is almost never picked up by both parties.
So Rodriguez is under pressure, not because of poor performance in 2026. He'll need to either earn his paycheck with Arizona in 2028 or prove to other clubs that he, at age 34, is worthy of another lucrative free agent deal.
If he does so, all parties benefit. If not, a 10-plus-year career could begin to wind down.
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