Lima Mayor Poll Says Runoff Would Flip Race

PERU · POLITICS

The runner-up in the undecided Lima mayor race would win if the city held a runoff, an Ipsos poll published on Wednesday 14 October shows. Francis Allison would beat Rafael López Aliaga’s ticket by 57% to 33%, according to the survey for the Lima daily Perú21.

The problem for Allison is that Peru’s election law gives the capital no second round, so the narrow first-round leader takes the job. Bettors on Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, still give López Aliaga an 87% chance of winning the city that hosts the US Embassy.

What the Ipsos Poll Found

Ipsos, the Paris-based polling firm, interviewed Lima voters on Wednesday 7 and Thursday 8 October for Perú21. It asked whom they would back if the two leading Lima mayor candidates met in a runoff.

Allison, the mayor of the Lima district of Magdalena del Mar, took 57% in that scenario. López Aliaga, a conservative former Lima mayor who leads the Renovación Popular party, took 33%.

The survey also shows how late Lima made up its mind. Some 30% of respondents said they chose their candidate for Lima mayor on election day, and another 22% in the final week.

Ipsos also asked who the electoral authorities would hand the mayor’s credential to if Renovación Popular wins. Some 63% named López Aliaga and 26% named Jeanette Alonzo, the party’s candidate for second councillor.

Why Lima Has No Runoff

Peru’s regional governors face a second round when no one reaches 30% of valid votes, but city mayors do not. Allison’s centre-right Avanza País party has asked the national electoral court to apply the regional rule to Lima, La República reported.

Allison argues that provinces normally skip runoffs because they have fewer people and powers than regions. “In the case of Lima, that is not so,” he said, Infobae reported.

Election lawyers quoted by El Comercio said Lima’s regional powers do not turn it into a regional government. One of them, José Manuel Villalobos, said there is “no legal basis” for a runoff, which would require a constitutional reform.

Senator Milagros Jáuregui of López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular called a runoff in this race irresponsible because of the cost, El Comercio reported. She said repeating the vote would be economically impossible, though a Lima runoff could be studied for future elections.

The Fight Over López Aliaga’s Seat

López Aliaga was Lima’s mayor earlier in the current term, and Peru’s Constitution bars mayors from immediate re-election. That is why he appears on the Renovación Popular list as first councillor rather than as its mayoral candidate.

His party wants him to take the mayor’s office if it wins, a move Perú21 calls a disguised re-election. The National Elections Jury (JNE), Peru’s top electoral court, has already thrown out a bid to bar a similar candidacy in the La Libertad region.

That candidate, a sitting district mayor from Renovación Popular, is running as first councillor on a list with no mayoral candidate, Perú21 reported. One JNE judge, Gunther Gonzáles, dissented, arguing that the Constitution bans the re-election of mayors.

Special electoral juries, local bodies under the JNE that settle disputes, are still reviewing contested tally sheets. As of Wednesday, the Renovación Popular list had 27.71% of valid votes and Avanza País 26.83%, Infobae and El Comercio reported.

Allison said on Wednesday night that his team is still “fighting over tally sheets” and asked the electoral bodies for clean work, El Comercio reported. Challenging 500 sheets costs 250,000 soles (about US$72,700 at 3.44 soles per dollar on 14 October), he told the news channel Canal N.

The poll lands on top of Avanza País’s runoff request and the recounts in the Lima race. It adds pressure on the electoral bodies, but it does not change the counting rules.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, gives López Aliaga an 88.6% chance of winning the Lima race, in a market with about US$543,000 in total volume. Kalshi, a betting exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), puts him at 87% and Allison at 15%.

Both prices were taken at 5:14 a.m. New York time on Thursday 15 October. Kalshi showed 95% a day earlier, but only about 200 contracts changed hands in that time, out of some 61,000 traded in total.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

Whoever wins will govern Peru’s capital and largest city, the seat of its government and home to the US Embassy. A winner with about 28% of the vote would take office with nearly three in four voters having backed someone else.

Travellers and expats should expect a winner to be named only after the electoral juries finish their review. The National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) counts the votes, while the JNE and its special juries proclaim the winners.

What Is Not Known

It is not known when the special electoral juries will finish reviewing the disputed tally sheets and proclaim a winner. Nor is it known whether or when the JNE will answer Avanza País’s runoff request.

It is also open whether the electoral authorities will let López Aliaga take the mayor’s office if his list wins. The runoff that Ipsos tested remains a hypothetical contest that current law does not provide for.

More: Peru news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who are the two leading candidates for Lima mayor?

Francis Allison of the centre-right Avanza País is mayor of the Lima district of Magdalena del Mar. Rafael López Aliaga, a former Lima mayor, leads the conservative Renovación Popular list as first councillor.

Does Lima hold a runoff for mayor?

No, the list with the most valid votes wins Lima’s mayor race outright. Avanza País has asked Peru’s electoral court to apply the 30% runoff rule used for regional governors.

What did the Ipsos poll find?

In a hypothetical runoff, Allison would win 57% and López Aliaga 33%. The poll was carried out on 7 and 8 October for the Lima daily Perú21.

When will Lima know its new mayor?

A winner will be proclaimed once special electoral juries finish reviewing contested tally sheets. Allison said on Wednesday that his team is still contesting sheets and waiting patiently for the count.

Sources: Perú21, Ipsos poll on a Lima mayor runoff, 14 October 2026; Infobae Perú, Allison would beat López Aliaga in a runoff, says Ipsos, 14 October 2026; El Comercio, Senator Milagros Jáuregui on a Lima runoff, 14 October 2026; El Comercio, what would have to change for a Lima runoff, 13 October 2026; La República, Avanza País asks the JNE for a Lima runoff, 12 October 2026; El Comercio, Francis Allison says he is still fighting over tally sheets, 14 October 2026; Perú21, JNE validates another Renovación Popular disguised re-election case, 13 October 2026; Infobae Perú, López Aliaga on the Rutas de Lima awards (former mayor), 25 September 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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