Dems lead GOP in House vote choice as Trump's approval rating hits record low: Poll

Just over two-weeks out from consequential midterm elections, a record share of Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump, about 7 in 10 say gasoline is unaffordable and that the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.

Midterms

By an 8-percentage point margin, likely voters support the Democratic candidate in congressional district elections over the Republican candidate, 52% to 44%. That margin remains 8 points among registered voters overall, 50% to 42%, an improvement from a July Washington Post-Ipsos poll for Democrats, when just 3 points separated the Democrats from the Republicans.

Although control of the House will ultimately be determined in votes for individual candidates in individual congressional districts across the county, the generic House question is a useful barometer. For example, before the last midterms, a fall 2022 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found registered voters nearly split and Republicans went on to win Congress. In a fall 2018 poll, Democrats had an 11-point lead over Republicans among registered voters and Democrats went on to win the House that year.

Overwhelming shares of partisans support their party’s candidates – 98% of Democratic likely voters and 96% of Republican likely voters each support their party candidates.

Democrats are bolstering their lead among independent likely voters, who support Democratic candidates by a 21-point margin, 56% to 35%.

Democrats are also benefiting from the fact that there’s more enthusiasm from their supporters. More Democratic voters (72%) than Republican voters (65%) say they are absolutely certain to vote and more Democratic voters are following the midterms “extremely” or “very” closely than Republican voters – 44% to 31%.

About 9 in 10 of the roughly half of likely voters who strongly disapprove of Trump plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district. And over 9 in 10 of the likely voters who approve of Trump plan to vote for Republicans. But the roughly 1 in 10 voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump support the Republican candidate over the Democratic one by a double-digit margin, 58% to 34%.

The economy

Half or more Americans call every household purchase category measured “unaffordable” in the latest poll, including 71% who now call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% who said the same in February, before the war in Iran drove up fuel costs. The national average gas price has topped $4 a gallon for a record 158 days in 2026 so far.

An increasing share of Americans also call healthcare unaffordable (65%, up from 56% in February) along with home energy and utility costs (57%, up from 45%) and rent or mortgage (50%, up from 37%).

And 60% call groceries unaffordable, also up from February (45%) but less than July (66%).

Growing shares of Americans call relative luxuries unaffordable, too. A 61% majority of Americans call going out to dinner unaffordable, up from 49% in February. Even more, 69%, say a weeklong vacation is unaffordable, up from 60%. And 80% call a new car unaffordable, up from 74% in February.

In all, 75% of Americans rate the nation’s economy negatively, including 35% who call it poor. Roughly half, 48%, say they are “not as well off” as they were when Trump became president, a high over both of his presidential terms.

Likely voters who rate the economy poorly support Democrats over Republicans in the generic ballot by 72 points. Likely voters who say they are not as well off support Democrats over Republicans by 60 points.

Beyond just the economy, Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is moving in: 72% say things in the country are headed in the wrong direction; just 26% say things are heading in the right direction.

President Trump

Trump’s weak approval ratings do not bode well for his party given that midterms are often a referendum vote on the president. And Trump’s approval rating has reached a record personal low of 33% percent in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, lower even than after the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol when 38% approved. Today, 66% of Americans disapprove, a record high over both terms.

Just over half of Americans, 52%, strongly disapprove of Trump, matching his strong disapproval rating after the Jan. 6 attack, and a record high for his second term, according to the poll.

Over both of his terms, a record-low 22% of independents approve of Trump and a record-high 76% disapprove, including 58% who strongly disapprove – another record high over both of Trump’s terms.

Among Republicans, 79% approve, down just slightly from a July Post-Ipsos poll but down significantly from 88% near the beginning of his second term. And a record-low 39% strongly approve of Trump, down from 63% in February 2025. Today, 21% of Republicans disapprove, up from 12% in February 2025. That includes nearly half of non-MAGA Republicans (47%) who disapprove today.

A majority of MAGA Republicans strongly approve of the president, 55%, but that’s down from 65% in February. About 6 in 10 Republicans consider themselves supporters of the MAGA movement, both now and in February.

Among registered voters overall, Trump’s overall approval rating is slightly better: 37% approve and 63% disapprove.

Majorities of Americans also disapprove of how Trump is handling every issue measured, and for many issues, Trump is at or near record-low approvals.

His worst issue is handling the cost of living in the U.S. -- perhaps the defining issue for the 2026 midterms -- and his ratings are similarly low to what they were in the ABC/Post/Ipsos poll in April. Now, just 21% approve while 77% disapprove.

Trump has similarly low ratings on handling inflation: 23% approve and 75% disapprove, a worse margin than in April when 27% approved and 72% disapproved.

On the economy overall, 28% approve of how Trump is handling things and 70% disapprove, a record-low approval and a record-high disapproval over both of Trump’s terms. In a July Post-Ipsos poll, 33% approved and 65% disapproved. His approval rating on the economy peaked at 56% in January 2020.

On Iran, 27% approve of how Trump is handling the situation and 70% disapprove, virtually the same as in a July Post-Ipsos poll. A 65% majority of Americans say it was a mistake for the U.S. to use military force against Iran.

On relations with U.S. allies, 30% approve of how Trump is handling things and 68% disapprove. A 58% majority of Americans say the U.S. should either reduce military support to Israel (25%) or end it completely (33%).

Trump’s best issue is immigration, where 38% approve and 61% disapprove, slightly down from his July approval ratings on the issue. A 56% majority of Americans say Trump is “going too far” in deporting undocumented immigrants while 15% say he is “not going far enough” and 28% say he’s handling it about right.

On how Trump is managing the military, 35% approve and 63% disapprove.

About two-thirds of Americans say since taking office, Trump has “gone beyond his authority as president;” about a third say he has acted within his authority.

Majorities of Americans say Trump is “not committed” to respecting the authority of Congress (68%), protecting freedom of the press (67%), respecting the authority of the courts (66%), free and fair elections (61%) or protecting freedom of speech (61%). Shares of Americans saying that Trump is not committed to protecting freedom of the press, free and fair elections and freedom of speech are all up from last October.

A record-high 66% of Americans say Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself, up from 62% in February and 56% in September 2025. Majorities of Democrats (94%) and independents (73%) along with just over a quarter of Republicans (27%) say Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself.

Wide majorities of Americans also say that it is “inappropriate” for Trump to push to have his name put on the Kennedy Center (80%, including 59% who say it is “totally inappropriate”), including majorities across partisan groups. Even 57% of Republicans say it is inappropriate.

And when it comes to the federal government paying for TV ads promoting Trump and his policies, 74% say it is inappropriate, including 55% who say it is totally inappropriate. Trump has said he would pay for the ads from political fundraising coffers, but the ads continued to air with a line saying they were "paid for by the U.S. government." A federal judge has ordered the government-funded ads to stop running.

About 6 in 10 Americans say Trump is focused too much on building projects in D.C. (59%); just 11% said he’s focused too little and 27% say he’s focused “the right amount” on building projects.

Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the party should follow Trump’s leadership going forward (61%), with 37% saying the party should go in a different direction.

By a wide margin, Americans prefer that the next Congress be controlled by Democrats, to act as a check on Trump (59%) than by Republicans, to support Trump’s agenda (35%).

Trust to handle key issues and party favorability

Americans trust Democrats over Republicans to handle 10 out of 12 issues measured in this poll.

U.S. adults trust Democrats over Republicans by 23 points to handle healthcare and by 14 points to handle education, the cost of living and inflation – all by wider margins than they have recently. Americans trust Democrats over Republicans by 11 points to handle the situation with Iran, by 9 points to handle reducing corruption in the government and transgender issues. Americans trust Democrats by 9 points to better handle the economy, the largest margin they’ve had on the issue since 2022 – previously they’ve been about tied with Republicans or were at a deficit to them. Adults trust Democrats over Republicans by 7 points to handle taxes along with the situation with Israel and Gaza.

The public is roughly divided on whether they trust Democrats or Republicans to do a better job handling immigration.

Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle just one issue, crime, for which they prefer Republicans by a 5-point margin. Still, that’s a recent high mark for Democrats, who have trailed Republicans on the issue by double digits dating back four years.

Americans feel negative toward both the Democratic and Republican parties, but while the Democratic Party is just 10 points underwater on favorability (44% favorable and 54% unfavorable), the Republican Party is worse at 28 points underwater (35% favorable and 63% unfavorable).

Double haters, those who are unfavorable toward both parties, who make up about 2 in 10 voters, favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in the generic ballot by 26 percentage points, 58% to 32%. This has been a key swing group in previous elections dating back to 2016.

More Americans call Trump and the Republican Party “too extreme” – 66% and 55%, respectively – than the Democratic Party (36%).

The MAGA movement is underwater by 41 percentage points, with 28% favorable and 69% unfavorable. Among Republicans, 70% are favorable and 28% are unfavorable.

Democratic socialism is underwater by 22 points, 37% of Americans are favorable and 59% are unfavorable. Among Democrats, 70% have a favorable view of democratic socialism and 27% are unfavorable.

Likely voters who plan to vote in different ways have different vote preferences. Voters who plan to vote in person on Election Day make up about 4 in 10 voters and support Republicans over Democrats by 11 points.

But the other ways voters plan to vote have a Democratic advantage: Those who plan to – or who have already voted early by mail – who make up just under 3 in 10 voters, support Democrats over Republicans by 26 points. About a quarter of likely voters plan to vote early at a polling place or already have, and they favor Democrats by 14 points. And about 1 in 10 voters plan to or have dropped off a ballot before Election Day and they support Democrats over Republicans by a wide 50-point margin.

See PDF for full results and detailed methodology.

Methodology: This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel Oct. 9-13, 2026, among 2,545 U.S. adults including 2,032 registered and likely voters and has an error margin of +/- 2 percentage points overall and +/- 2.2 points among registered and likely voters. All registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results. Error margins among most other subgroups are larger.

ABC News’ Liz Schreier contributed to this report.

Email ABCNEWS.Polls@abc.com to be added to ABC News’ polling distribution list.

More ABC News polls can be found at abcnews.com. Media contacts: Jeannie Kedas and Van Scott.

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