The parity era is real, and it won’t be easy for teams to make the NBA playoffs this season

Preseason speculation hardly ever means anything. Consider last year, when the NBA season opened with the New York Knicks not even favored to win the Eastern Conference and the San Antonio Spurs having the 17th-best odds of winning a title.

The Knicks won a championship. The Spurs made the NBA Finals. Go figure.

In this era of NBA parity — with eight different champions in the last eight seasons — it’s getting harder and harder to predict what is going to happen, and that’s probably the way the league likes it. There are plenty of teams with legitimate title aspirations, and the East looks particularly tough.

Surprises will happen. Teams will emerge. Some will exceed expectations. Others will not.

Here’s one guess as to how things will play out between now and June, when the Larry O’Brien Trophy gets awarded again:

MVP

There have been eight consecutive Most Valuable Players who were born outside the U.S.

Make it nine after this season, when San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama — the reigning Defensive Player of the Year — wins the trophy for the first time.

Detroit’s Cade Cunningham got two first-place votes in MVP balloting last season, making him the first U.S.-born player to get one of those since 2021. Don’t be surprised if New York’s Jalen Brunson — the reigning NBA Finals MVP — and Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards get into the mix this year.

Rookie of the Year

It’s rare that a rookie comes into the season looking ready to go. Even after Summer League and a preseason, there’s nothing that can get anyone truly ready for the rigors of 82 games in the NBA.

AJ Dybantsa in Washington, Darryn Peterson in Utah and Cameron Boozer in Memphis will all have their moments.

But the pick is Chicago’s Caleb Wilson, who should get a ton of minutes and a ton of opportunity to stake his claim to the award.

The East playoff field

They’re in: Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Miami, Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland, Indiana.

Out in the play-in: Atlanta, Orlando.

Analysis: The East will be a mess. Atlanta is good. Maybe really good. Same goes for Orlando. Charlotte should be better than many think. Such will be life in the East this year, where the final standings should be super-tight and some playoff-quality teams are going to miss the postseason. Put simply, there’s only eight playoff spots and more than eight playoff-possible squads.

The pick: Philadelphia. Look, this lineup — LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe — should work. Time will tell if it will.

The West playoff field

They’re in: San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Denver, Houston, Portland, Golden State, Los Angeles Lakers.

Out in the play-in: Phoenix, Dallas.

Analysis: Damian Lillard is going to will Portland back to the postseason, the Spurs and Thunder are as close as there can be to playoff locks, and some think teams like Utah could break through and get into the hunt this season as well. There might not be as much top-to-bottom depth in the West as there is in the East, but it’ll still be a serious grind to get one of those guaranteed playoff spots.

The pick: Minnesota. If not now, when? The Wolves have been too good for too long.

NBA Finals

Philadelphia vs. Minnesota. LeBron James goes to the finals for the 11th time, but Anthony Edwards proves too much. Wolves win the title.

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