Adamawa guber: Can Aisha Binani repeat 2024 feet in 2027?

In 2023, Aisha Dahiru Binani almost broke the jinx of becoming the first elected female governor of the Northern extraction. In this piece, Northern Bureau Chief, MUHAMMAD SABIU examines her political journey and the possiblity of her repeating the 2023 feat as she joins the 2027 race.

When Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed, popularly known as Binani, walked into the history books in 2023, it was not just as a candidate. She became the first woman to come within a whisker of winning a governorship in Adamawa State on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, (APC). She forced the incumbent, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, into a supplementary election, polling 398,788 votes to Fintiri’s 430,869 in one of the most dramatic governorship contests in Nigeria’s recent history. The election went to the Tribunal and up to the Supreme Court.

Now, three years later, Binani is back on the ballot — but on a different platform. She is the governorship candidate of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) for the February 6, 2027 election.  This time around she will be facing Chief Murice Vunobokki-PDP, Abduraahaman Bashir -DLA,  Nathienal Christopher  -SDP   Alh Ahamed Tijjani – APC,  and Alh Modibbo Hammatukur- ADC.

 The question is simple, can she repeat the feat of 2023 and  go all the way to clinch the exalted seat of the governor?

After losing in 2023, she remained a major voice in the Adamawa (APC). But months to the party primaries, she left the APC for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), citing imposition of candidates and internal crisis. Her camp accused former SGF Babachir Lawal of trying to hand the ticket to former Governor Jibrilla Bindow.

Nine months after joining the ADC, she moved again  to another new party founded by the former governor of Bayelsa state. Thus, on May 1, 2026, she was formally received into the NDC in Abuja by the party’s National Leader, Senator Seriake Dickson, and the National Working Committee. 

Her explanation was consistent. “After carefully studying the party’s constitution, I saw a strong commitment to structured, policy-driven governance,” she said.

 She also said her supporters had already moved ahead of her and that Adamawa now has one of the highest numbers of registered NDC members in the country.

The NDC itself is now a coalition of familiar names. On the provisional list released by INEC in September 2026, Binani is listed alongside Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Dickson — all now in the NDC.

In Adamawa, the political map has shifted. Governor Fintiri, whom she faced as a PDP candidate in 2023, has since defected to the APC and is now seeking a senatorial ticket. The APC itself is locked in a fierce battle between the camps of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu and other stakeholders over its own governorship ticket.

Binani is leveraging on the rift in APC 

In recent weeks, she has taken her grassroots consultation to Southern Adamawa — Numan, Demsa, Lamurde, Ganye, Jada, Mayo-Belwa, Toungo, Shelleng and Guyuk — the zone often described as the kingmaker in Adamawa elections. She has also visited the families of Modibbo Adama and Modibbo Girei, and held a strategic meeting at the NDC state secretariat on September 9, 2026, where she urged all NDC candidates to close ranks.

Significantly, she has picked Hon. Emmanuel Dominic Mapeo from Ganye Chiefdom as her running mate, a move widely seen as an attempt to lock down the Southern vote. Mapeo, a former ward councillor and two-time Vice Chairman of Ganye Local Government, is regarded as a grassroots mobilizer.

Most of the politicians in Adamawa state today don’t have Binani’s level of statewide recognition. She has contested for House of Representatives, Senate for Adamawa Central, and governorship. Campaign structures, polling agents, women leaders and youth coordinators built in 2023 have not disappeared. As one APC elder, Ibrahim Girei said in an interview, “Ignore Binani at your own risk.” 

Another youth leader, who preferred to be anonymous noted that resilience is her biggest asset, saying, “she never says no once she start.

Remember, in a conservative North-East state, Binani broke a glass ceiling in 2023. She enjoys massive goodwill among women voters, traders, and young people who saw her candidacy as inspirational. At 54, she combines experience with the energy to campaign across 21 local governments.

Taking a cursory look at her romance with the NDC, she has brought the party as a new force which is also pitching itself as a third-force alternative to APC and PDP, which may appeal to undecided voters tired of the two dominant parties.

Again, the choice of Mapeo from Southern Adamawa is strategic. The Southern Zone has nine LGAs and has historically complained of marginalization. By picking a running mate from Ganye and intensifying consultations there, she is directly addressing that sentiment. 

If she can combine her traditional strongholds in Adamawa Central (Yola North, Yola South, Girei, Fufore) and Adamawa North (Mubi, Michika, Madagali) where she performed strongly in 2023, with a good showing in the South, her path becomes viable.

 The confusion in Adamawa APC after Fintiri’s defection to the party has left many original APC members disgruntled. Some are reportedly looking outside. With the entire old PDP structure now clashing with old APC loyalists inside one party, Binani as an outsider in NDC can present herself as the stable alternative.

Her hurdles

The platform she is planning to run for the governorship might be her biggest hurdle. In 2023, she rode on the APC, a party with federal might, governors, and a deep structure down to ward level. The NDC is still new in Adamawa. Does it have polling unit agents in all 4,104 polling units? Does it have the finance and logistics for a statewide election? Her claim that Adamawa has the highest NDC membership will be tested on Election Day.

Another is moving from APC to ADC to NDC within nine months will be used against her. Opponents will label her as inconsistent. She will need to convince voters that the moves were principled and driven by her supporters, not personal ambition. In Nigerian politics, frequent defection can erode trust.

 She will no longer face Fintiri, but she will face the APC candidate backed by the Federal Government and the state government that Fintiri now belongs to. Whether it is Ribadu’s anointed candidate or another, that candidate will have state resources. The PDP is also still present. Running against two established structures from a smaller party is a steep climb.

The controversy surrounding the illegal declaration of Binani as winner by the suspended Resident Electoral Commissioner, Hudu Yunusa-Ari, during the 2023 collation, still comes up in political conversations. Though she distanced herself from it and the courts upheld Fintiri’s victory, opponents will revive it to question her democratic credentials.

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What she must do 

For Binani to repeat and surpass her 2023 feat, three things must align.

First, she must convert sympathy into structure. The NDC in Adamawa needs to quickly build a ward and local government executive that is loyal to her, not divided among senatorial candidates.

Second, she must keep the Southern alliance intact. The South has produced deputy governors but never governor. If Mapeo can deliver a bloc vote and traditional rulers remain neutral, she can reduce the margin there.

Third, she needs a low turnout in Central where APC is strongest, and a high turnout among women in the North, where she is popular.

Ultimately, Adamawa elections are decided by three factors: religion and ethnic balancing, federal backing, and grassroots mobilization. Binani understands the last one very well.

As we approach February 6, 2027, one thing is clear: no serious analyst can write off Aishatu Binani. She came close once when few gave her no chance. In 2027, she is not an underdog seeking attention; she is a former finalist returning with a new jersey, a new strategy, and a familiar message that Adamawa is ready for its first female governor.

Whether the state answers that call for a second time will be decided not in Abuja boardrooms, but in the markets of Jimeta, the farms of Ganye, and the hills of Michika.