Golden State Warriors shooting guard Brandin Podziemski has been upgraded to probable for Friday's home opener against the Memphis Grizzlies.
That will dramatically change the Warriors' rotation from their season opener against the Lakers.
Using last year's data, this year's opening game data and common sense, I have a rotation blueprint for Steve Kerr to follow for Friday's game.
Starting Lineup (First 4 Minutes of 1st and 3rd Qs)
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Brandin Podziemski
SF: Gui Santos
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg
C: Draymond Green
The Warriors couldn't contain Walker Kessler, who went 12-of-12 with 10 dunks in the Lakers' 127-105 win. With that in mind, one could argue they should start a traditional center instead of the 6'6" Draymond Green to try to slow down Zach Edey, who is 7'4".
The problem is they don't really have a healthy one.
Al Horford is also undersized at 6'8". Not only is Green a better rim protector than Horford, but also the Warriors need to preserve Horford's minutes for when Green is getting rest.
Charles Bassey is out again with knee tendinitis. With all due respect to Graham Ike, it's not a realistic option to give him a starting nod yet.
So in other words, Kerr would be making the correct decision if he goes with the same starters except Podz in for De'Anthony Melton.
Lineups containing the quartet of Curry, Podz, Santos and Green had a plus-16.2 net rating last year, and most of those lineups came with Green at the 5.
This lineup (with Lendeborg as the fifth player) has to work for the Warriors or else it's going to be a long season.
Next 4 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs
Lineup: Curry, Melton, Podz, Green, Horford
Horford and Green will have their minutes staggered except for the mid-first and -third quarter stretches.
Last year, lineups with the quartet of Curry, Podz, Green and Horford had a plus-17.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass.
Melton and Podz will mostly have their minutes staggered, but the duo are together here in part because their lineups had a plus-6.9 net rating last year.
Last 4 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs
Lineup: Brandon Williams, Melton, Santos, Lendeborg, Horford
This was the Warriors' most successful lineup in the season opener when the game was competitive, as it posted a plus-13.3 net rating.
First 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs
Lineup: Curry, Richard, Podz, Niang, Green
Curry's rotation of playing eight minutes, sitting four minutes, playing four minutes, sitting four minutes and playing four minutes may not be ideal because he's historically thrived from playing for longer stretches.
But I'm following it here because it's more than likely that Kerr will use it again after using against Los Angeles.
Will Richard checks in at shooting guard after having a strong game against the Lakers (8 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal).
Next 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs
Lineup: Williams, Melton, Richard, Lendeborg, Horford
All eight non-Curry minutes for each half include Williams and Lendeborg for scoring purposes. Ideally, Lendeborg would use more of his pick-and-roll ball-handling ability during these stretches.
Last 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs (Closing Lineup)
Lineup: Curry, Podz, Santos, Lendeborg, Green
The Warriors return to their starting lineup, which contains their five best healthy players.
Minutes Distribution
Curry: 32
Green: 32
Podz: 32
Lendeborg: 32
Santos: 24
Horford: 24
Melton: 24
Williams: 16
Richard: 16
Niang: 8
Final Thoughts
Gary Payton II will get lots of playing time this season, but for this rotation, it came down to him and Richard, and I felt the Warriors should reward Richard for how he played against the Lakers.
Melton went scoreless in his first game, so his 24-ish minutes shouldn't be set in stone. He gets a chance to bounce back with a full allotment of minutes.
I don't mean to sound dramatic, but this is an important game for the Warriors. They have a back-to-back on Saturday against the Suns, which will lead to Horford's absence and maybe others.
That's why I'd advise Kerr to have a more playoff-like rotation. Curry, Green, Podz and Lendeborg should all play about 32 minutes.
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