LVMH’s fashion sales set a weak tone for the third-quarter earnings season amid a sharp decline in Chinese demand.
Revenue from LVMH’s fashion and leather goods division fell 5% to €8.24 billion, versus consensus expectations of a 2% decrease. This follows a return to positive growth for the all-important division in Q2 (+1%), which was seen as an inflection point after seven consecutive quarters of negative growth.
The group’s total sales were up 1% to €18.5 billion in Q3, roughly in line with consensus expectations of 1.2%, after rising 3% in Q2.
By region, group sales in Asia (excluding Japan) were down 5%, up 5% in the US, up 4% in Europe, and up 6% in Japan.
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“The third quarter brought a more challenging Chinese consumer backdrop with a ‘feel-good’ factor deteriorating at the very beginning of the quarter, and this added to a Middle East situation that is still a headwind,” LVMH CFO Cécile Cabanis said during the group’s earnings call on Monday. “We hope these situations will subside, but in the meantime, self-help is a priority for performance to improve,” she added, referring to brand initiatives to turn around sales. “And on that front, we are seeing progress across our brands.”
The company does not break out sales by brand, but this quarter gave a temperature check for its major fashion houses. According to Cabanis, Louis Vuitton’s Q3 sales were just below its division performance of -5%; Dior was“flat”; Loro Piana is “still enjoying very strong growth”; Rimowa is “also an outperformer”; and “Celine is improving fast and building real momentum in the US”.
Louis Vuitton also felt the repercussions of its legal dispute with Chinese tea brand Molly Tea. The company was ordered to pay Louis Vuitton approximately $1.5 million for infringing on the luxury house’s four-petal emblem, a ruling that sparked backlash on Chinese social media. “It’s very difficult to quantify the precise impact, but, net-net, it’s probably fair to say that it had a negative impact, at least at the beginning of the quarter,” Cabanis said. An issue with a shipping partner also set the brand back for the quarter, weighing on quarterly growth by just over one percentage point, she added, noting the issue was now resolved.
Asked whether Jonathan Anderson’s designs landing in Dior stores met expectations, Cabanis dismissed any reason for disappointment. “If we look qualitatively at what is happening, newness is getting good results in all categories,” she said, noting that Dior is outperforming especially in the US. “We are seeing great traction on women’s ready-to-wear, which is the clearest read on consumer appetite for Jonathan Anderson’s designs. We believe that Jonathan has a very clear vision for Dior and where he wants to take the brand — he’s been building very nicely and consistently quarter after quarter. So no, we are not disappointed.”
Pressed to give more details by categories, Cabanis added: “What we are seeing is a lot of appetite on women’s ready-to-wear. Men’s ready-to-wear is less advanced, so we need to do a bit more work. On bags, there is really a good dynamic on tweaking the icons, but also starting to prepare to have more icons in the future.”
According to the CFO, Celine’s US sales grew double digits in the quarter. She also highlighted the strong performance of footwear, which posted double-digit growth in Q3, and of the Soft Triomphe handbag. “We are very confident that Celine is now getting the right level of traction to become a growth driver for us,” she said.
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Cabanis was also asked to comment on the other LVMH brands that have undergone creative change: “At Fendi, Maria Grazia Chiuri has been the latest to change, so you need to wait a season for that newness to gradually become part of the mix. But the Fendi Baguette, which was tweaked with a softer material, is doing well, and we are quite confident. And at Loewe, we’re starting to see areas of momentum, especially with some of the recently launched bags. It’s a journey, but overall we are quite encouraged by the results on the different brands.”
When it comes to the other divisions, selective retailing, which includes beauty retailer Sephora, was up 8%. Perfumes and cosmetics were up 1%, and watches and jewelry were up 6%. Wines and spirits were also up 6%.
LVMH is typically a bellwether for the luxury industry. Kering and Hermès are each to report their Q3 earnings on October 22, with slower growth expected versus Q2, at -1.6% and 5.3%, respectively, per HSBC estimates.