Ethiopian gains in Tigray risk wider war with Eritrea, analyst warns

Ethiopia’s military advances in northern Tigray do not spell an end to the conflict but have the potential to increase the risk of war with neighboring Eritrea, an analyst told The Associated Press.

Magnus Taylor, deputy Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, said capturing towns and main roads would constrain Tigrayan fighters but would not necessarily give federal forces control of the region’s vast rural areas.

AP footage filmed Oct. 10 showed Ethiopian troops and military vehicles entering Adigrat, near the Eritrean border, as some residents waved Ethiopian flags.

Government-allied fighters also retook the regional capital, Mekelle, following the withdrawal of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

"We shouldn’t imagine that this conflict is completely over just because the TPLF has lost Mekelle,” Taylor said.

He recalled that Tigrayan forces had regrouped in rural areas after losing towns during the previous war, warning that further fighting could bring more destruction and disruption.

Footage also showed former Tigray leader Getachew Reda, now an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, greeting residents alongside Ethiopian intelligence chief Redwan Hussein.

Getachew promised change during the visit but gave no details.

Taylor said federal authorities needed to reach out to Tigrayans, distinguish their campaign against the TPLF from the wider population and restore humanitarian access, federal funding and supplies of fuel, medicine and cash.

He also warned that the advance north had brought Ethiopian and Eritrean forces close together, increasing the danger of a direct and wider regional conflict.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border and occupying Ethiopian territory.

Eritrea has denied supporting the TPLF and condemned Ethiopia’s assertion that it was taking self-defense measures as a declaration of war.

The AP could not independently verify Ethiopia’s allegations.

Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war.

Researchers at Ghent University in Belgium estimate that about 500,000 civilians died from violence, famine and the collapse of health services.

Renewed fighting has undermined the peace agreement that ended that war.