The Cabinet is split almost right down the middle over whether the UK should rejoin the EU, The i Paper can reveal.
And there are further divisions on the question of whether any move to rejoin should be underpinned with a referendum or not.
While the Prime Minister has said he wants to find consensus on Europe, the fact that his own Cabinet is divided shows the political difficulty – and peril – of trying to forge much closer ties with the EU.
A narrow majority of Andy Burnham’s ministers back a return to the bloc, but they remain divided over whether a second referendum would be necessary, how quickly Britain should move towards membership and whether Labour risks reopening the toxic divisions of the Brexit years.
It comes as the Prime Minister is hoping to sign a Brexit-reset deal next month, which will open the door for under-30s to work and study in Europe and make trade with the EU easier.
Burnham is expected to use this forthcoming UK-EU summit in Brussels on 20 November as a springboard for a wider national debate about Britain’s place in Europe, with rejoining on the table, along with membership of the customs union or single market.
The Prime Minister is gambling that a majority of voters now want much closer ties with Europe, and hopes this could provide a long-term answer to persistent cost of living problems and even the small boats crisis, which has been blamed on Brexit.
But with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK still an electoral threat, despite slipping in the polls, particularly in Labour’s Northern heartlands, many in his Cabinet disagree with his strategy.
Around 15 of 28 ministers attending Cabinet are understood to support a return to the bloc, against 13 who are either undecided or opposed, according to people familiar with their views.
To hold a referendum or not to hold a referendum?
The Prime Minister has already set out a range of options for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc. These include a customs union, a return to the single market or even full EU membership.
One source familiar with the discussions said he was likely to set out a road map in a series of speeches on his 10-year plan for the country.
But beyond the question of whether to rejoin or not, there is the issue of whether rejoining should merely be part of the general election manifesto. But most ministers are understood to be coming round to the view that a second referendum is unavoidable.
Without a referendum there would be nothing to stop a future Conservative or Reform UK government from reversing the decision, the argument goes. That uncertainty would leave the EU distrustful of the longevity of any new arrangement.
“The EU needs to know this is what Britain really wants,” one source said.
Burnham has said a new referendum would not be the right move “right now”, but has stopped short of ruling one out in a future Labour manifesto.
Asked by the BBC last month whether such a commitment was possible, he replied: “Yes, things are possible. I think where we are isn’t good enough.”
Some would prefer Labour’s 2029 manifesto to seek a mandate to open negotiations on joining, with a commitment to walk away if the eventual deal was not good enough. Any agreement could then be put to Parliament for approval, The i Paper understands.
Others fear that a fresh campaign to rejoin would reopen old wounds.
One former cabinet minister who regards themselves as pro-European said: “I won’t be involved in that. Seems like a recipe for division and self-flagellation to me. Have they looked at what’s happening in French and German politics? I think there’s a big difference between pragmatically getting closer, which I support, and rejoining.”
Those in favour of rejoining
Among those understood to be most supportive of rejoining are Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock, Labour Party chair Bridget Phillipson and Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh, who previously sat on the board of the pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain.
One Cabinet minister said: “I’m very pro-European. I think it will have to be step by step, with the summit being an important move towards where we will be. I imagine it will go beyond the next general election, but I do believe we will be back in the EU in the next decade or so. I don’t think it will be fast, unless something seriously changes. It will take time.”
Some in the pro-European camp prefer to talk about joining rather than rejoining, The i Paper understands, arguing that the EU today is very different from the one Britain left.
They want the argument to be fought on the Leave campaign’s own ground: control.
Leaving the EU was meant to give Britain greater control over its borders, laws and economy. Yet, supporters of a closer relationship argue, immigration and small boat crossings have increased, the EU continues to shape the terms of much of Britain’s trade in goods with Europe and 16,000 businesses have stopped exporting to the bloc altogether.
Streeting has been among Labour’s most outspoken figures on Brexit, describing Britain’s decision to leave the EU as a “catastrophic mistake” and arguing that the country should ultimately seek to rejoin.
Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary, who campaigned for Remain, is also supportive but has been more guarded in her comments in public.
Speaking at a fringe event at last month’s conference, she said Labour must “respect the red lines that were set out in the manifesto” for the rest of this Parliament. She added that “no one wants to go back to the toxicity and the divisions of previous Brexit debates”.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, is also understood to favour a closer relationship.
Those around him say his conversations with businesses have left him in “no doubt” about the negative impact of the Brexit deal.
Angela Rayner, the Housing Secretary and former deputy prime minister, is understood to be “really supportive” of what Burnham has said and “open-minded on future policy”.
But she believes any new manifesto commitment would require a fresh mandate from voters at a general election.
A Europe-sceptic Cabinet
Despite the growing support for a closer relationship, one Labour insider argued that Burnham’s Cabinet was “significantly more anti-Europe than the previous one”.
The source pointed to the departure of figures including Hilary Benn, Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Peter Kyle, Nick Thomas-Symonds and Darren Jones, arguing that they were likely to support rejoining the EU, joining the single market or pursuing similar arrangements.
The source contrasted them with replacement figures including Chancellor John Healey, First Secretary Louise Haigh, Chief Whip Anneliese Midgley and Education Secretary Lucy Powell, suggesting that the new Cabinet was more sceptical about Europe.
“Healey is an Atlanticist, he doesn’t like Europe,” the source said.
Among those thought to be less enthusiastic about returning to the bloc is Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, who told ITV News in May that reopening the debate over Britain’s future relationship with the EU was “a world away from what people are asking for”.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has also urged caution about reopening the debate. Speaking at a fringe event at the Labour Party conference, she argued that people needed to be more “clear-eyed” about the trade-offs and consequences of both positions.
Yvette Cooper, who campaigned for Remain, is also understood to be cautious about the prospect of Britain returning to the EU. Some have attributed her position to the views of voters in her constituency of Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, in West Yorkshire, which was estimated to have voted 69.3 per cent to 30.7 per cent in favour of Leave in the 2016 referendum. Reform came second with as strong showing in the 2024 general election.
First, the Brexit reset summit
Burnham is expected to hold off on any decision until after the Brussels summit on 20 November.
The meeting is expected to focus on strengthening UK-EU co-operation, with leaders reviewing progress on defence and security, energy, agri-food rules, climate and migration. A joint declaration is expected at the end.
A successful summit could give the PM greater scope to open up the broader debate about Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe.
A long-standing pro-EU Labour source said: “He [Burnham] will follow up next month with a speech setting out our available options – all premised on what will work best for the British people. He needs to be given the space to lead that argument, and to make his case to the country.”
Even Labour’s most committed pro-Europeans are urging caution. Their concern is that committing to rejoin before the trade-offs have been properly debated could see the party lose the argument over Europe for a second time.
“Whatever is put to the people needs to be a fully fleshed-out deal,” said one activist. “We cannot have another situation where we are asking people to vote for an ill-defined concept rather than a concrete proposal.”
There are also questions about how realistic some in Government are prepared to be about the options available.
One source familiar with the discussions said there was still a considerable degree of “cakeism” – the belief that Britain can secure the economic benefits of closer ties with the EU without accepting the obligations or compromises that come with them.
For Burnham, the challenge is therefore not simply to persuade his Cabinet that Britain needs a closer relationship with Europe. It is to establish what that relationship would look like, what it would cost and what the country would be asked to accept in return.