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Closing line-value is the game here.
Last week we nailed the Texans +3, an important number, and the line swiftly moved in our direction as Houston closed +2.
They won outright in London, of course, but getting in early provided a great hedge opportunity.
We did not receive the same fortune from the Bills. They barely beat the Raiders, who covered the 5-point spread.
We move on to Week 7 with these early predictions to target before the “Monday Night Football” matchup.
NFL Week 7 early predictions
Patriots +3.5 (55 percent, Polymarket) vs. Bears
Targeting this early week “Thursday Night Football” matchup as the Patriots are still being a bit undervalued in my view. The Bears mostly annihilated the Falcons, but their DVOA rating remained virtually unchanged thanks to a terrible 6.0 yards per play this year.
New England has a better DVOA rating and I don’t think this hook lasts for very long.
Giants +10 (-115, DraftKings) vs. Texans
I expect the Giants to turn to J.J. McCarthy this week and move this line closer to 7.5 before kickoff. Far from a guarantee, and I’m projecting a lot here, but that’s using deductive reasoning, and that’s how you beat lines by two-plus points.
Big Blue had a terrible showing in Week 6 against a hapless Saints squad; I think the Texans are legitimately excellent as well. But McCarthy looks like a legitimate player, and I’m all-in on him being the starter for the Giants this week and beyond.
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Packers +3 (-106, FanDuel) vs. Lions
Green Bay is a team I’m backing again this week. They’re far better than the betting market is saying. They expect to get back Josh Jacobs this week, which should help them against a bad Lions defense.
Detroit had the benefit of a bye week, but the Packers’ defense is quietly rated No. 8 in DVOA.
Their offense is the only thing holding them back from being a top-10 team (No. 22 in offensive DVOA).
Jacobs might be helpful in that regard. I think you’re looking at Lions -1.5 by kickoff on Sunday.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.