Diesel prices just jumped 20 cents in a few hours, and experts warn we’re “running out of bullets” as inventories dwindle. We dive into the latest fuel market data, the impact of red-dyed diesel policies, and how geopolitical events are creating an unstable energy supply chain that could push prices much higher. Understand the real risks to your operations.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel futures on the CME swung sharply higher Tuesday morning, rising roughly 20 cents in the span of about two hours after briefly trading negative the day before. The move rattled diesel consumers already dealing with depleted inventories and limited policy options, with one market watcher warning that prices could push back above $6 per gallon — and potentially well above that level.
John Kingston, who tracks energy markets for FreightWaves, said the intraday whipsaw was a red flag for anyone exposed to diesel costs. The contract was down a few cents Monday, recovered to roughly 9 cents positive about two hours before the conversation, then jumped to up 20 cents just 10 minutes before air. “We’re just running out of bullets,” Kingston said. “There are no more bullets in the chamber. The inventories have been drawn down.”
“In the last 2 hours, I’d be real worried if I was a diesel consumer. I think what’s happening today is really, really concerning.” — John Kingston
The Trump administration’s decision to allow red-dyed diesel — normally reserved for tax-exempt, non-road uses such as farming — to be used over the road drew scrutiny. Kingston said the policy faces a fundamental supply-chain problem: red-dyed diesel is segregated from standard road diesel, and major truck-stop chains such as Love’s, TA, and Pilot are unlikely to drain and reconfigure tanks for a program set to expire December 31. The federal excise tax break embedded in red-dyed diesel also cannot be waived by the executive branch, since it was established by Congress. “The supply chain is not set up to get red-dyed diesel out of agricultural supply chain down to the supply chain that includes Love’s and Pilot and TA,” Kingston said.
On the international front, Kingston noted that a proposed U.S. diesel export ban was pulled back roughly two weeks ago. In response, G7 nations and other Western economies agreed to release strategic stocks totaling around 100 million barrels of crude and products into the market. More urgently, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, contacted IEA member nations just two days ago and told them to speed up strategic stock releases — specifically prioritizing diesel over gasoline, according to Kingston.
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz had briefly improved toward pre-war levels, helping push oil and diesel prices lower about a week ago. But Kingston said the latest data show those flows are deteriorating again amid renewed Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure, adding geopolitical risk back into the price picture. He said he would not be surprised if Iran de-escalates after the U.S. midterm primaries, pointing to the historical precedent of Iran releasing American hostages the day Ronald Reagan took office in 1981.
Longer-term, Kingston said the diesel crunch could accelerate electric vehicle adoption among buyers who were previously undecided. He noted that a year ago, all three major monthly oil supply-demand reports — the OPEC report, the IEA report, and the Department of Energy’s Short-Term Energy Outlook — were signaling downward pressure on oil prices partly due to EV penetration, including EV share of new vehicle sales reaching roughly 40% in markets such as Norway or China. Higher diesel and fuel prices, he said, will likely push fence-sitters toward electrification: “It’s already been a factor, and it’s probably going to be a factor again.”
- Ultra-low sulfur diesel futures surged 20 cents in roughly two hours Tuesday morning, signaling acute tightening in the diesel market.
- The Trump administration’s red-dyed diesel waiver faces a December 31 expiration and supply-chain barriers that limit its real-world impact on over-the-road diesel supply.
- IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol contacted member nations two days ago urging accelerated release of strategic stocks, specifically prioritizing diesel.
This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.
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