The San Diego Padres have many decisions to make this offseason as their season once again ended much sooner than the organization would have liked.
With 17 potential free agents on the roster and likely trying to retool while maintaining a responsible payroll, the possibilities are endless for president of baseball operations AJ Preller.
The recent sale of the club to new owners Kwanza Jones and Jose E. Feliciano came with the duo relaying their commitment to a winning culture. However, rather than words, their actions amid the first offseason at the helm will be telling on how they manage future seasons.
According to contract predictions from Spotrac, there is a clearer idea of what it will take to keep the team's biggest free agents.
Here's a look at the seven starting pitchers who could hit free agency.
The Big Four
RHP Michael King: 5 years, $149.6 million ($29.9 million AAV)
King had another fantastic season, pitching to the tune of a 3.21 ERA along with a career-high bWAR (4.3) and innings pitched (185). It was more of the same in the postseason as he had a microscopic 0.64 mark in 14 total innings of work.
He has a $28 million player option for the 2027 campaign, and a $30 million option for 2028. If he opts out (which appears likely), he not only is owed a $5 million buyout, but the 31-year-old can negotiate a deal that guarantees his rate for a longer portion of time.
Staying in San Diego is something that King had said he wants. Whether or not it happens likely depends on the Padres' budget.
“San Diego’s been incredible for me, and it’s all the way across the country from home,” King said. “But now I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast, so it’s been awesome. And yeah, I hope to continue.”
RHP Nick Pivetta: 4 years, $106.8 million ($27.2 million AAV)
Pivetta had a phenomenal first season with the Friars in 2025, but after four starts this year, took a nearly five-month injured list stint due to elbow complications. He allowed just three earned runs in his final four starts of the regular season (18.2 innings) and was solid in the postseason as his team won both games where he was on the mound.
The contract at hand presents an interesting case as Pivetta has a $14 million club option, but a projected market value that is almost doubled.
Preller recently stated that the Padres are, "hoping [to] figure something out that makes him a part of this thing going forward.” It could end up being cheaper to just pick up his option.
LHP Robbie Ray: 2 years, $47.6 million ($23.8 million AAV)
In a time when the Padres desperately needed starting pitching, the two-time Cy Young award winner was acquired at the trade deadline. Instead of meeting expectations, or even maintaining the 3.08 ERA he had in 22 outings with the San Francisco Giants, he totaled a 5.08 mark in his nine starts as a Padre.
Come postseason, rather than show Padres fans why their squad gave up valuable prospects in order to get him, he allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings of work. It is assumed that the free agent will not be back with San Diego and instead find a new home elsewhere.
RHP Casey Mize: 3 years, $49.3 million ($16.4 million AAV)
Mize had a very similar case to Ray as he was brought in at the trade deadline in order to address a starting pitching issue, but instead exacerbated the problem. He carried a 2.70 ERA through 16 starts on the Detroit Tigers fresh off his first All-Star nod in 2025, but had a dreadful 7.46 mark in 10 outings in San Diego.
An ankle injury prevented Mize from making any postseason action, but perhaps his ERA would have kept him off the roster regardless. It is unlikely that he will be back with the team next season, especially at the price tag for the budget-conscious Friars.
The Other Guys
RHP Griffin Canning: 1 year, $4.5 million
Through the first 65 innings of Cannings season (10 starts and four spot starts), he had an abysmal 6.65 ERA. For the remainder of the season, 14 relief appearances, he had a 3.04 mark and was a key piece to a formidable bullpen.
RHP Lucas Giolito, 1 year, $3.5 million
Giolito was added to the team in mid-May to address the starting pitching issue in San Diego and put up a 5.16 ERA across seven appearances (29.2 innings) before elbow inflammation sent him to the injured list for the remainder of the year. The 32-year-old has an $8 million mutual option that is unlikely to be picked up with a $1.5 million buyout.
RHP Walker Buehler: 2 years, $6.1 million ($3.1 million AAV)
It's possible the Padres look to bring back Buehler, who made 32 starts for the Padres last year and even started a postseason game after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Canning and Giolito, however, will almost certainly be on new teams next year after struggling in San Diego.
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