Ukraine mounted one of its largest-ever drone attacks on St Petersburg on Sunday, in what analysts said was a clear message to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump that it will not back down.
Two oil facilities in Russia‘s second city went up in flames in the “massive” assault, as well as a logistics centre belonging to a major online retailer, Ozon, and a social media data centre.
The overnight onslaught followed grave concerns for Ukraine over Trump removing internet and intelligence access vital to the war.
On Thursday, Ukraine’s military encountered sudden, temporary speed restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service, which it uses for its drone missions and air defences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Kyiv was investigating the unexpected restrictions, which forced Ukrainian drones to fly slower than usual, making it easier for Russian weapons to target or evade them.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk said decisions about Starshield’s use rested with the US government, while Trump and the White House said they did not order the restrictions.
The drone attack hit the St Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchyi oil depot in yet another blow to the Kremlin as it fights to maintain Russian citizens’ support for the war.
It comes after Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” last week, apparently surprising both Zelensky and Putin. Since then, Zelensky said on Saturday, Russia had struck energy targets 76 times.
Zelensky said it had resumed strikes on energy facilities three days after Trump’s announcement, citing the Russian failure to comply with the ceasefire.
The decision to recommence strikes infuriated Trump, who was keen to see through a deal with the Kremlin to secure Russian diesel imports and try to alleviate soaring fuel costs in the US.
Observers suggested the restrictions on Starshield could have been linked to Trump’s anger with Zelensky, also indicated by the brief suspension of intelligence sharing from the US side earlier this week. On Sunday, the Ukrainian leader confirmed this exchange had resumed.
Hitting Putin where it hurts
“St Petersburg is the third largest refinery in Russia. It’s extremely significant. It’s extremely visible because, of course, we’re in one of Russia’s best known cities,” Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at the University College Dublin, told The i Paper.
St Petersburg’s governor, Alexander Beglov, said 12 apartment buildings were also hit, with one person dead and five more injured. Pulkovo Airport, one of the busiest in the country, was also temporarily shut “for safety reasons” following the “massive” attack.
Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the wider Leningrad region, said a total of 145 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight, and the attack left 20,000 people without electricity.
Lucas said the decision to mount such a large-scale attack on the city was part of a Ukrainian decision to give “a very visible sign that Ukraine’s not giving up. It’s not conceding”.
Keir Giles, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, said the St Petersburg attack was not a one-off special mission but part of a larger strategy. “We need to look at this as part of the longer term trend,” he told The i Paper. “Attacks have been getting bigger.”
“They have been getting deeper. And of course, there’s an advantage to mass attacks because they saturate defenses in Russia in exactly the same way as they do in Ukraine.”
‘Trump had gone too far’
Experts suggested the strike on such a major energy target reflected Zelensky’s decision that Ukraine can no longer rely on US support and there is little point in trying to comply with their conditions if Trump will inevitably back Putin anyway.
“After a three-day pause earlier this week that followed the Trump announcement of purchase of diesel fuel from Russia and then the apparent cutoff of early warning intelligence to Ukraine for attacks, Zelensky just realised that Trump had crossed a line and he might not be able to bring him back, even with flattery,” Lucas said.
Giles added the renewed Ukrainian campaign “shows that when they are assessing the relative risks of punitive measures by the United States and suspending their campaign against Russia, they’ve decided that the least worst option is to push ahead and disregard American attempts to prevent them from defending”.
In fact, Giles said, the choice of targets in St Petersburg shows that Ukraine is determined to exhibit its strength and ability to strike the same targets where Russia has bombarded it.
This will give Russian military leaders “something to think about”, Giles said. “Attacks on major bridges, for instance, that keep cities joined together is exactly what Russia attempted when targeting the bridges in Kyiv.”
Deteriorating relations with the US
Looking ahead to the future of the war and US-Ukraine relations, it appears Ukraine has now accepted it can no longer rely on US support, significantly changing the dynamic of the war.
Ukraine has realised, Giles said: “Whatever they do, Trump and those around him are going to decide at some point to curtail support to Ukraine. So in a way, there’s less to lose than at a time when that might have been open to question.”
According to Lucas, the risk to the relationship has entirely been driven by the Trump side, who in effect asked Zelensky “to give up your leverage, give up your counterattacks”.
“You either have to concede to him and allow the Russians to keep hitting you with the airstrikes, or you have to stand up to Trump and say, no, that’s just not the way we’re going to do this,” he added.
As for the potential consequences of such a rift, Lucas suggested this “could go as far as to the cutoff of intelligence sharing… or Starlink”, which the US already briefly paused earlier this week, leaving Ukraine with “no good option”.
At the Kremlin, officials will be “absolutely celebrating the fact that they have successfully manipulated Trump and his envoys”, Lucas said.
While the attacks on St Petersburg are a temporary blow, ultimately “they had a huge victory with that purchase of diesel last week and then the follow-up signs with the cutoff with the early warning intelligence”.
“They’ll want to try to press that advantage with the Americans,” Lucas added.