Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
Key Facts
- Wall Street fell on Friday: the Dow lost 1.2% to 52,215 and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
- Meta fell about 7% on Thursday and 1% on Friday as AI spending worries hit tech shares.
- Brent oil rose about 3% above US$116 a barrel, and the US 10-year yield reached 5.00%.
- The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday 28 October and is widely expected to hold rates.
- Prediction markets Polymarket traders give 93.5% to no Fed change in October, as of 11:07 p.m. ET on 23 October.
The Big Three
- AI funding fears shake risk appetite A technology sell-off sent the Nasdaq down 0.21% while Meta, which lost about 7% on Thursday, slipped a further 1% as worries over AI spending weighed on tech shares. The concern is shifting from enthusiasm over AI demand to whether data-centre investment can be financed without damaging growth.
- Oil’s inflation shock keeps rates high Brent crude rose about 3% to above US$116 a barrel, its highest in over four years, as traders weighed possible US strikes on Iran. That keeps pressure on inflation expectations and complicates central-bank decisions. Higher energy costs are particularly uncomfortable for Brazil, where imported inflation can delay interest rate cuts by its central bank.
- Fed week arrives with growth still firm The US composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4, but new orders grew at their fastest pace in about four and a half years. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates on Wednesday 28 October.
S&P 500
7,624
-0.52%
Second straight drop
Dow
52,215
-1.23%
Sharpest decline
Nasdaq
25,955
-0.21%
Tech-led retreat
Gold
US$3,994/oz
-0.75%
Safe haven fades
US 10-year yield
5.00%
+0.89%
Back at 5%
Dollar Index
101.752
+0.14%
Recovers modestly
VIX
19.45
+2.21%
Risk gauge rises
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United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite PMI | 57.6 | 58.4 | Expansion moderates |
| Manufacturing PMI | 56.0 | 55.9 | Edges higher |
| Services PMI | 57.9 | 58.8 | Softer but still strong |
| Michigan Sentiment | 48.0 | 48.1 | Little changed |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone Composite PMI | 51.9 | 53.1 | Momentum stalls |
| Eurozone Services PMI | 51.7 | 53.0 | Momentum stalls |
| Eurozone Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.9 | Momentum stalls |
| German Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 53.9 | Factory resilience |
| French Composite PMI | 48.4 | 51.1 | Contraction deepens |
| UK Composite PMI | 53.1 | 52.0 | Beats forecasts |
| UK Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 51.9 | Beats forecasts |
| UK Retail Sales MoM | -0.4% | 0.7% | Misses forecasts |
| UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM | -0.7% | 0.9% | Misses forecasts |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil IPCA mid-month YoY | 4.62% | 4.47% | Monthly pace slows |
| Japan Composite PMI | 52.3 | 52.3 | Stable |
| Japan Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54.1 | Misses forecasts |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,624 | -0.52% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 205,083 | +0.47% |
| USD/BRL | 4.9654 | -1.57% |
Source: market close, 23 October 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Saturday, October 24, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | No major data releases scheduled; Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October | — | — |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
World
Oct 24, 2026 · 00:18
S&P 500 · benchmark
7,751 +0.29%
Market breadth · 15 names
60% advancing
9 ▲ advancing6 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
EUR / USD
1.1523
-0.20%
US 10-yr
4.6760
-0.17%
VIX
14.60
-4.45%
Gold
4,461
+1.78%
Brent crude
88.88
-0.03%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
Largest moves today
VIX 14.60 -4.45%
KOSPI 6,579 +3.68%
GOLD 4,461 +1.78%
SILVER 65.59 +1.26%
NDX 29,799 +0.93%
NIKKEI 67,524 +0.83%
HSI 25,440 -0.83%
CSI300 4,691 +0.58%
The session read
The S&P 500 rose 0.29%, with breadth positive — 9 of 15 names higher. KOSPI led, while HSI lagged.
01 The AI trade loses its shine
The Dow fell 1.23% to 52,215 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.52% to 7,624, as investors questioned whether the enormous funding needs of AI data centres can deliver adequate returns. The Nasdaq’s milder 0.21% decline to 25,955 masked deeper losses in AI-linked names, with Meta down about 7% on Thursday and a further 1% on Friday as investors weighed its heavy spending plans.
Gold fell 0.75% to US$3,994 an ounce even as shares slid, with a firmer dollar and higher yields weighing on it. The VIX jumped 2.21% to 19.45, a sign that caution is creeping back into options markets after a long calm.
02 The Fed faces hot prices, cooler nerves
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points to 5.00%, up from 4.96% on Thursday, as price pressures persisted. October’s composite PMI of 57.6 showed output-price growth at its strongest since August 2022, even as new orders grew at their fastest pace in about four and a half years.
Michigan consumer sentiment held at 48.0 against 48.1 a month earlier, while one-year inflation expectations held at 4.7%. That combination argues against an easy policy pivot at next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where markets broadly expect rates to stay on hold.
03 Brazil’s election and the dollar test
Brazil enters its presidential runoff on Sunday with markets already on edge from global forces. October’s IPCA mid-month inflation came in at 0.32% month on month, slowing sharply from 0.70% in the previous reading.
The annual rate rose to 4.62% from 4.47%.
The dollar index rose 0.14% to 101.752, and oil above US$116 a barrel raises imported-inflation risks for Latin America’s largest economy. A hawkish Fed message next week could pressure the real and postpone any interest rate cuts by Brazil’s central bank, especially if the election outcome unsettles fiscal expectations.
04 What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market where people bet real money, put the chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its 28 October meeting at 93.5 percent at 11:07 p.m. ET on Friday, 23 October. They gave 6.5 percent to a 0.25-point rate rise, and about US$61 million had been traded on that market. For the December meeting, Polymarket traders gave 73.5 percent to a 0.25-point rise.
For Brazil’s runoff on Sunday, Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro about a 78 percent chance of winning and Lula about 22 percent, with about US$194 million traded. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, put Flávio at 77 percent and Lula at 24 percent.
These prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by the Federal Reserve or polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to watch today and this week
- Sunday 25 October: Brazil presidential election second round
- Wednesday 28 October: Federal Reserve policy decision
- Thursday 29 October: European Central Bank policy decision
- Friday 30 October: Bank of Japan policy decision
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did global markets sell off?
Investors questioned whether the massive funding needs of AI data centres can deliver adequate returns, hitting technology shares and broader risk appetite.
What happened to US Treasury yields?
The 10-year yield rose about 4 basis points to 5.00% as price pressures and resilient activity kept bond investors nervous.
What is the Fed expected to do?
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, while robust activity and rising price measures argue against rapid easing.
Why does Brazil’s election matter for markets?
The runoff outcome will shape fiscal policy expectations; combined with a stronger dollar and high oil, a market-unfriendly result could pressure the real and delay central bank interest rate cuts.
What is the key emerging-market risk?
A stronger dollar, higher energy prices and weaker technology demand could tighten financial conditions and reduce investor appetite for Latin American assets.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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