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So much attention is understandably focused on whether Democrats can take back control of Congress this year. But little-noticed state legislative races could be just as consequential.
If Democrats retake Congress, they can block Trump’s MAGA agenda. But if Democrats retake control of the states, they can actually begin to reverse it.
Back in 2010, Republicans picked up nearly 700 state legislative seats. Barack Obama famously called it “a shellacking.”
That allowed the GOP to draw heavily gerrymandered maps in key swing states that locked in lopsided Republican majorities for the next 15 years.
Republicans currently control 57 state legislative chambers compared to 39 for Democrats.
But 2026 could be 2010 in reverse, as my colleague Tim Murphy wrote last year.
Democrats are targeting 500 state legislative seats in 42 chambers across 27 states this year.
They could break up GOP majorities in six states (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas) and pick up new majorities in seven states (Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
Why do state legislatures matter? Look no further than Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election at the state level. Or the flood of abortion bans passed by GOP states after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Or the mid-decade gerrymandering done by Republicans after Trump pressured them to redraw their maps before the midterms and the Roberts court eviscerated the Voting Rights Act.
State legislatures decide so many big issues, from redistricting to voting laws to abortion rights and much more. Yet they receive a fraction of the attention of federal races, even though their balance of power is often decided by a handful of votes. Control of Virginia’s House of Delegates was literally decided by pulling a name out of a bowl in 2017.
It’s become a cliche to say that one vote can swing an election. But for state legislative races it’s actually true!
Watch our new video to understand why this year especially, the bottom of the ballot is just as important as the top.