Bangladesh is projected to maintain its lead over India in GDP per capita at current US dollar prices for two more fiscal years, despite a widening growth gap that is expected to put India back in front by FY29, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook database, released on Tuesday, estimates Bangladesh’s GDP per capita at $2,886 in FY26, compared with $2,750 for India, giving Bangladesh a narrow advantage of $136.
The projections suggest that Bangladesh’s lead will persist through
FY28 before India overtakes it in FY29. India’s GDP per capita is forecast to reach $3,662 that year, against $3,334 for Bangladesh.
The gap is expected to widen further by FY31, when India’s figure is projected to rise to $4,389 and Bangladesh’s to $3,680, leaving a difference of around $709.
Bangladesh had previously maintained a higher GDP per capita than India for seven consecutive years from 2018, before India regained the lead in 2025.
GDP per capita is calculated by dividing a country’s total economic output by its population. Although commonly used to compare average economic output per person, it does not directly reflect income distribution or differences in living costs.
India retains advantage in purchasing power
The comparison changes when differences in the cost of living are taken into account.
India remains ahead of Bangladesh in GDP per capita measured at purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for differences in the prices of goods and services between countries.
The IMF projects India’s GDP per capita at $12,998 in PPP terms in FY26, compared with $10,884 for Bangladesh, giving India an advantage of 19.4 per cent.
India has maintained its lead on this measure every year since 1994, and the IMF expects the gap to widen to around 45 per cent by 2031.
Growth outlook favours India
Despite Bangladesh’s projected lead in GDP per capita at current prices in the near term, India is expected to remain South Asia’s fastest-growing economy over the forecast period.
India’s GDP is projected to expand from $4.06 trillion in FY26 to $6.74 trillion in FY31. Its annual growth rate is forecast at 7.02 per cent in FY27 and 6.81 per cent in FY31.
Bangladesh, by contrast, is projected to record the region’s slowest economic growth. Its annual growth rate is expected to fall to 2.21 per cent in FY28 before recovering to 2.97 per cent by FY31.
The subdued outlook also raises questions about Bangladesh’s ambition to become a $1 trillion economy by 2034.
The IMF estimates the country’s GDP at $506.4 billion in FY26 and projects it to reach $674.4 billion by FY31, leaving a substantial gap between the forecast and the government’s target.
Maldives leads South Asia
Bangladesh also trails several other South Asian economies in GDP per capita.
The Maldives is projected to lead the region in FY26 with $19,507, followed by Sri Lanka at $5,062 and Bhutan at $4,933.
Pakistan’s GDP per capita is estimated at $1,836, while Nepal is projected to have the region’s lowest figure, at $1,540.