Chloe Maluleke and Dr Iqbal Survé|Published
Gulf business owners have a new way of saying "not now" to the stock market: they are selling privately instead. With the Iran war unsettling regional exchanges, initial public offerings across the Gulf Cooperation Council have fallen by about three-quarters compared with the same period of 2025, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data reported by AGBI. Mergers and acquisitions have filled the gap.
The numbers
The shift is stark. M&A accounted for $15.7 billion, or 83 per cent of exit value across the Middle East and North Africa in the first half of 2026, AGBI reported, up from 79 per cent a year earlier and 73 per cent in 2024. PitchBook data compiled by Lincoln International shows IPOs' share of exits collapsing from above 5 per cent to below 1 per cent.
Other data points the same way, though totals differ by provider. LSEG figures cited by Zawya showed four regional IPOs in the first quarter, against 12 a year earlier, the weakest opening quarter since 2018. Dubai's index fell 16.4 per cent in March, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul rose 5 per cent.
M&A and buyouts have long offered founders and private investors a steadier route to selling all or part of a business, and the war has strengthened that appeal. A private buyer negotiates a price. A public offering lets the market set one, and in wartime it may set it low.
There is also a financial cushion. Srividya Gopal of Lincoln International told AGBI that sovereign wealth funds and other state-backed owners can underwrite investments through a market cycle. They can wait rather than accept lower valuations during a short-term scare.
That patience is well funded. Global SWF data reported by the Khaleej Times show Gulf sovereign funds committing a record $53.9 billion across 108 deals in the first half of 2026, with Abu Dhabi's Mubadala investing $15.2 billion. Almost half went to the United States. The money is moving, but into private deals and overseas assets, not Gulf listings.
Performance has scarred sentiment
The war is not the only deterrent. AGBI reports that three of the six largest Gulf IPOs of 2025 were trading well below their offer prices by December. Investors burned by weak aftermarket performance are less inclined to pay full valuations, and owners know it. Lincoln International says geopolitical volatility, aftermarket performance and valuation expectations have together delayed listings, even though it still calls the pipeline "meaningful".
A test case in Dubai
That pipeline faces an early test. Dubai Investments plans to sell 20 per cent of DIP Holding, the owner of Dubai Investments Park, on the Dubai Financial Market. It will be the UAE's first IPO of 2026. According to the Khaleej Times, subscriptions run from 27 October to 3 November, with trading expected around 11 November, subject to approvals and market conditions. The price will be set by book-building among professional investors.
The offer follows Oman's Omifco in July and a Saudi listing in March, and other prospective UAE issuers, including Dubizzle, Etihad Airways and Binghatti Holding, have yet to move. A well-received DIP Holding could encourage them. A weak debut would reinforce the case for waiting.
Waiting is not a strategy in itself
Arash Jalali of Revona Capital cautions against reading delayed exits as a sign of weak businesses. A poor IPO market, he told AGBI, can lengthen holding periods without implying that the underlying company has deteriorated. The test, he suggests, is whether the extra time is used to strengthen earnings and reduce debt, or merely postpones a sale. That is the real divide. Sovereign-backed owners can afford to wait. Leveraged private owners may not be able to, and for them a trade sale could be the practical exit regardless of price.
Written by:
*Dr Iqbal Survé
Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN
*Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russia & Middle East Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.
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