In mid-autumn this year, the International Monetary Fund probably made the safest prediction in its history: “Winter is coming,” said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva from Singapore, ahead of the Fund’s meeting in Bangkok, which began on October 12 and concludes today.
The prediction is safe not only from a meteorological standpoint but also because it borrows from fiction. “Winter is coming” is the Stark family’s motto in the series Game of Thrones. Winter, with all its hardships, is announced both as a threat and as a warning. Complacency, House Stark tells us, will lead to our destruction. So we had better get moving.
With two endless wars underway in northeastern Europe and the Middle East, the IMF’s prediction also appears entirely sound on a symbolic level. Soaring energy prices and shortages of energy reserves mean that costs will remain sky-high for a long time, even if the wars were to end tomorrow. Kristalina Georgieva said as much. So, what do we do?
At the EU summit in Brussels, no one expected white smoke to emerge and at least warm our hearts. Europe’s leaders are divided between those who want to prepare for the threat of widespread social unrest and those who fear a major public debt crisis. The former are calling for measures to support households; the latter want spending cuts and austerity measures. This is not exactly a student argument in a lecture hall, yet an institution such as the European Council has once again split into two camps. And then everyone is left to fend for themselves.
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In the German House, Chancellor Merz announced a cut in electricity taxes, although, as German media pointed out, “his finance minister does not know where the money for it will come from.” In France, with presidential elections approaching, candidates are competing to make ever more generous promises, while the most extreme among them are announcing upheaval and confrontation. In Britain under Breback, Prime Minister Burnham abolished VAT on electricity bills at the beginning of the month and is preparing to bring energy, water and transportation back into the arms of the state—in other words, under public control.
But which state? This is where another Game of Thrones begins, along with a vicious cycle. The British House owes £3 trillion, twice as much as it did ten years ago. The American House’s national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, while France’s public debt is approaching 120% of its national output. The world’s largest economies, Georgieva says, are also the “biggest offenders.” Creditors know this, just as they can sniff out every trick the Houses deploy to reduce the burden of public debt. And what do they do? Having already been lending at high rates, they lend at even higher ones.
This is the vicious cycle, and these are the creditors: powerful funds to which not only governments but also private-sector giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and SpaceX owe money. The funds are the cement holding the story together, while the global economy risks disintegrating like foam.
To weather the winter, one must first identify the nature of the threat. Winter is coming, but which winter? The cold and hunger facing 50 million people, as warned by Dan Jørgensen, the EU commissioner for Energy and Housing? Or the winter invoked by Kristalina Georgieva, who called from Bangkok for “austerity, now”?
The dilemma is unnecessary. As it turns out, the real Game of Thrones is being played out with the funds, which, in the middle of winter, are enjoying their eternal sunshine.