Saturday
Who: New Mexico (4-1, 1-0) vs. Hawaii (1-5, 0-3)
When and where: 8:30 p.m. Saturday at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.
How to watch/listen: FS1 will carry UNM-Hawaii with Carlos Jimenez (play-by-play) and Robert Smith (analyst) on the call. Robert Portnoy (play-by-play) and DonTrell Moore (analyst) will broadcast the game on the Lobo Radio Network (770 AM/96.3 FM).
Who’s favored: UNM is listed as a 14-point favorite, per DraftKings. The over/under is set at 45 points.
Entering Saturday’s game against New Mexico, Hawaii has five losses to one win. And that lone victory came against New Mexico State, an opponent the Lobos beat by 24 earlier this season.
Jason Eck doesn’t exactly expect to play a downtrodden group, though.
“This certainly isn’t the case where I think you’re getting a team that’s going to be down-and-out,” UNM’s second-year head coach said Monday. “They’re gonna play their ass off.”
All that stands between UNM and its first-ever 2-0 start in Mountain West play is Hawaii — a team the Lobos haven’t beat on the road since 2016.
Three things to watch for as UNM looks to break that streak:
1. Keeping Hawaii out of the end zone
If that seems a little too self-explanatory — if not something to watch for in every game — consider:
Through six games, Hawaii’s red zone conversion rate is 65% — the 132nd-worst mark in the 138-team FBS. Last year, the Rainbow Warriors led the 12-team Mountain West with a conversion rate of 95.24%, scoring 24 touchdowns out of 40 red zone appearances (57.14%).
That steep decline might not be the most troubling part, though. This season, Hawaii has scored seven touchdowns in 20 red zone appearances for a league-worst red zone touchdown rate of 35% — the 136th-worst mark in the country.
Only Florida International (31.82%) and Sacramento State (31.25%) have been less successful scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
“Mistakes are hurting us. And if the mistakes do happen, you gotta be able to overcome them,” Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang said of his team’s red zone issues after a 30-12 loss to Arizona State last Saturday.
In fairness, mistakes aren’t entirely to blame for Hawaii’s offensive regression — after all, the Rainbow Warriors haven’t had star receiver Pofele Ashlock (a team-high 117 targets last year) all season. And Hawaii’s favored run-and-shoot offense has always been more vulnerable to defenses on shorter fields, where it’s that much harder to keep things spread out.
“Things get condensed when you get down in the red zone,” Eck said. “I think against a scheme like this, that takes away some of the space that they take advantage of … You want to get them in the red zone where they have a little less space, and try to take advantage of that.”
To that point, UNM has more than shown its ability to hold up opponents in the red zone: Through five games, the Lobos have allowed just two touchdowns in the red zone, the lowest of any defense in the country. Continuing that success would bode well for UNM’s chances against Hawaii.
2. How UNM rotates at linebacker, and other injury-affected positions
Throughout the season, Eck has made a point to say UNM has a number of “starter-caliber backups” on its defense. And if somebody goes down, the expectation is there won’t be a major dropoff when the next man comes in.
Defensively, that expectation will be put to perhaps its biggest test of the season come Saturday.
Thursday, Eck said starting linebacker and reigning Mountain West Co-Defensive Player of the Year Jaxton Eck (25 total tackles) is expected to miss multiple games with a shoulder injury; backup linebacker Nick Wheeler (11 total tackles) is also out for the season after suffering a torn ACL.
Without those two, UNM is expected to lean on Mercury Swaim (25 total tackles), Clay Martineau (13 total tackles) and Jayden Flaker (13 total tackles) to help man the middle. None of the three are especially unproven — in fact, all three have shined on this defense — but the linebacker rotation will be as tight as it’s ever been in Eck’s tenure.
Cornerback Frankie Edwards III (9 total tackles) was also ruled out against Hawaii with a concussion, per Eck. In his place, Jahmir Torres (8 total tackles) is expected to pick up the bulk of Edwards’ reps; keep an out for the sophomore as he manages an extended workload and how much UNM decides to rotate at corner.
3. Affecting Alejado
The last time UNM played Hawaii, Micah Alejado announced himself to the world by completing 37 of 57 passes for 469 yards and five touchdowns in his first career start. When the Lobos missed him last year, the 5-foot-10, 180-pound junior passed for 3,106 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions on his way to Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year honors.
This season hasn’t been as smooth: Alejado has completed 157 of 265 passes for a league-high 1,613 yards, but only five touchdowns to four interceptions. Saturday, it’s on UNM to keep things rocky for him by bottling Alejado up in the run game and affecting his throws up front and in coverage.
“He’s very elite at extending plays and buying time, allowing receivers to get open,” Eck said. “It’s a great challenge for our coverage units, for our back end, but also for our defensive front.”
Sean Reider covers college football and other sports for the Journal. You can reach him at sreider@abqjournal.com or via X at @lenaweereider.
More UNM football coverage
*
What's wrong with Hawaii's offense, injury report and more ahead of Saturday's game
Few teams have struggled more to score touchdowns in the red zone than Hawaii
*
Karhu, Levells request jury trial in consolidated cases against NCAA
Judge has yet to rule on eligibility for Lobos DE and DB after hearing last week
*
The Lobos are island-bound. Everything you need to know about New Mexico's game at Hawaii
HC Jason Eck believes Hawaii's 1-5 record is 'deceptive' entering Saturday's game
*
Wright: Coach Fran wasn't a keeper and didn't want to be
But there will always be 1997, and the win over BYU
*
Eck: Lobos look to keep improving over the bye
Lobos' second-year head coach focused on 'taking care of business' over any outside buzz