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A slumping stock price. C-suit shakeups. Corporate layoffs. A failed takeover bid. It's not a new drama on Netflix, but rather the drama that has surrounded the streaming giant as it limps into earnings with its stock nearly off 50% from its all time highs.
Option traders are betting the drama might be coming to an end.
Current options prices are implying a 9% post-earnings move, which is the highest since its Q3 2022 report, when it was priced for an 11% move. Netflix shares beat that implied move that quarter surging 13%. This time around, a hint of optimism is replacing what has become an almost automatic quarterly disappointment. The stock has had a median move of 7.25% over the last eight quarters.
As of 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, one-and-a-half times more calls had been bought than puts in Netflix, while more puts had been sold than bought on more than 150% of average daily volume. Six of the ten most-bought contracts were calls, with five of those expiring this Friday. When traders sell puts, its a bullish strategy.
The single largest trade on Netflix's tape was a seller of a string of Nov. 20 expiration 70-strike puts for a total of just about $2 million. Notably, those contracts are right at the money, making this trade a major vote of confidence for a stock desperately in need of some reassurance heading into this afternoon's print.
Netflix, YTD
There was also notable call buying of the 80-strike calls expiring this Friday. Traders bought more than 3,500 of those contracts for more than $210K worth of premium. For context, that would require Netflix stock to surge at least 20% by Friday to break even, a jump of more than double its implied move to the upside.
Trader appear to be betting that Netflix earnings losing streak could be ending shortly.