By Deborah Madeya:
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has warned that the projected El Niño event could reduce Malawi’s cereal harvest by 30 percent in the 2026-27 agricultural season.
In its recent publication, ‘Southern Africa 2026 El Niño Preparedness Alert’, the UN agency says at least four million Malawians will require humanitarian assistance during the 2026- 27 lean season.
According to the report, many African countries, including Malawi, respond to disasters rather than prepare for them, a trend that could reverse the food security gains made over the past year.
The report places Malawi’s preparedness at the ‘in readiness’ stage and that protocols and plans are in place but anticipatory action has not yet been formally activated.
It recommends that agricultural inputs and climate advisories reach communities before planting begins, warning that funding released after October may come too late to prevent crop losses.
“Governments, humanitarian and development partners, and regional organizations should use current agricultural gains and available lead time to build reserves, finance and scale coordinated early action and protect livelihoods and essential services,” the report reads.
OCHA also warns that rising food insecurity is likely to be accompanied by disease outbreaks, acute malnutrition, school dropouts, gender-based violence and child labour.
The alert comes as Malawi’s National El Niño Preparedness and Response Plan faces a funding gap of K324.8 billion.
According to the government, the plan requires K488.5 billion, of which K163.7 billion has been mobilised through existing government and partner commitments.
In an interview, Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Social Protection Executive Director Kenneth Sakala described the projection as worrisome and stressed the need for anticipatory action.
Sakala said the government should prioritise replenishing strategic grain reserves as part of its preparations.
“In 2015, a smaller shock pushed maize prices up 150 percent and forced ultra-poor households to sell livestock and farm tools – assets they never recovered,” Sakala said.
Meanwhile, agriculture policy expert Taman Nkhono-Mvula has said Malawi needs to diversify beyond maize and grow more drought-tolerant crops to reduce recurrent food shortages.
Recently, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee estimated that 2.6 million households would face food insecurity during the 2026-27 consumption period, representing 14 percent of the country’s population.