The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd), from its previous estimate of 2.36 million bpd, citing the need to replenish inventories depleted by the repercussions of the war with Iran.
However, the organization lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 for the sixth consecutive time, according to its monthly report released on Tuesday, reflecting a more cautious outlook for the current year. The report also showed a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia’s reported crude oil production in September.
Riyadh informed OPEC that its output had reached 8.372 million bpd, compared with 6.238 million bpd in August, an increase of more than two million bpd. Russian crude production moved in the opposite direction, declining by 38,000 bpd in September to 8.643 million bpd, according to OPEC data reviewed by Reuters.
The decline came amid continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country would slightly reduce its oil production this year. Russia’s Economy Ministry had also lowered its 2026 production forecast to its lowest level in 17 years, citing the impact of the war with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s oil production increased by 22,000 bpd in September compared with the previous month, reaching 1.851 million bpd, according to the OPEC report. The latest projections highlight the differing outlooks for oil demand and production, with OPEC anticipating stronger demand growth in 2027 while revising down its expectations for 2026.