GOP Chances of Losing Senate Seats in Top Farm States as Diesel Costs Soar

Soaring diesel prices, lingering tariff damage and the economic fallout from the Iran war are putting Republican Senate seats at risk in five of the country’s biggest farm states, three weeks before Election Day.

Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina all rank among the top 10 states for agricultural cash receipts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. All five Senate seats are in Republican hands, but the map could look very different after November 3.

Each of those races has moved toward Democrats, or independents in Nebraska’s case, according to recent polling averages, forecasts and prediction markets. Most point to the start of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 as the turning point.

For farmers, the war showed up as a bill. On-highway diesel averaged a record $6.529 a gallon nationally in the week of September 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. When the fighting started, it cost roughly $3.80 to $3.90. Fertilizer jumped too after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global supplies.

High prices have been especially damaging for President Donald Trump, who carried all five states in 2024 but now has an underwater net approval rating in four of them, according to the latest Civiqs tracking poll.

Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek he thinks “the cake is baked.”

“The GOP isn’t going to solve inflation, the war, gas prices in the next few weeks,” Patton said. “The President’s approval numbers aren’t going to shoot up 20 points.”

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment on Tuesday.

Where the Five Races Stand

Trump won Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Nebraska by 13 to 20 points in 2024, and North Carolina by 3.3 points. His standing has since fallen in all five states. The Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan election forecaster, now rates three of the five Senate races as toss-ups. It rates North Carolina Likely Democratic and Nebraska Likely Republican, though the latter is becoming more competitive.

On October 6, Cook moved North Carolina's open Senate race from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring, leaving former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper to face Republican Michael Whatley. Trump's net approval rating in the state has fallen to minus 18 in the Civiqs tracker, compared with minus 8 in Morning Consult's spring poll.

Iowa's Senate race moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up on August 20. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Representative Josh Turek. Trump's approval has fallen sharply in the state. Civiqs put his net approval among registered voters at minus 21 as of October 8, down from plus 6 earlier in his term. Morning Consult measured it at minus 7 in the spring.

Texas also moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up on August 20. Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff and will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Trump won Texas by 13.6 points in 2024, but his net approval rating has fallen to minus 20 in Civiqs, compared with minus 3 in Morning Consult's spring measure.

Cook downgraded Kansas twice in less than two weeks. Republican Senator Roger Marshall's race against Democrat Adam Hamilton moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on September 23, then to Toss-up on October 6. Kansas is the only one of the five states where Civiqs still gives Trump a positive net approval rating, at plus 1. But an Emerson College poll in September found that 40 percent of voters approved of his performance, while 53 percent disapproved.

In Nebraska, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn. Cook rates the race Likely Republican, the strongest rating for a Republican candidate among the five states, though it had been Solid Republican until the spring. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rates it Likely Republican, while Inside Elections puts it at Lean Republican. Trump won Nebraska by about 20 points in 2024, but his net approval rating fell below zero in July or August. Civiqs now puts it at minus 4.

"At this point, the question isn't whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many," Cook wrote in its October 6 update.

Diesel, Fertilizer and Tariffs Squeeze Farmers

Diesel prices climbed through the summer and broke the national record in September. The EIA's weekly U.S. average passed its June 2022 high of $5.810 a gallon on September 7 and peaked at $6.529 two weeks later. It stood at $6.199 on October 5.

It has been worse in the Midwest, home to Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, where diesel peaked at $6.680 a gallon and was $6.286 in the latest reading, up 71 percent from a year earlier. Gulf Coast prices, which cover Texas, rose 73 percent over the same stretch to $5.819, though the region is still the cheapest in the country.

Refined fuels have risen faster than crude oil since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil "largely hovered around the $90 mark" while diesel and gasoline outpaced it, Afdhal Rahman of the Singapore bank OCBC told AFP in September. Planting and harvest both depend heavily on diesel. On September 22, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, a Republican, suspended penalties for farmers using untaxed dyed diesel on public roads.

"We're not going to sit on the sidelines while Louisiana farmers are paying record prices to harvest the crops that feed our families," Landry said.

Democrats want voters to blame Republicans on the ballot. "Americans will continue to pay astronomical prices at the gas pump this week with no help from Republicans running for governor who backed Trump and his reckless war once again," Sam Newton, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, said in a statement shared to Newsweek.

"They are all 100% responsible for these record-high gas and diesel prices and must explain why they are jacking up prices to the families and businesses in their states who are hurting."

The strait also carries up to 30 percent of globally traded fertilizer, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Six weeks into the closure, urea at the New Orleans hub was up 49 percent and Midwest anhydrous ammonia up 32 percent, according to tallies by Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at the brokerage StoneX.

"We have never seen something like this in the history of fertilizer markets," Linville told Newsweek.

The USDA forecasts 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, down 5.5 percent after inflation. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 in September, and a record 52 percent of producers named input costs as a top concern. Only 48 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, the first reading below half in the survey, compared with an average of 71 percent in the second half of 2025.

Some of the slide predates the war. The barometer fell from 136 in December to 113 in January on trade worries, climbed back over the summer and dropped again in September.

The Senate Seats Republicans Could Lose

Kansas

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Now, Democrat Adam Hamilton is closing the gap with Republican Senator Roger Marshall as concerns about trade and agricultural policy put pressure on the GOP's once-comfortable advantage.

Kansas is the nation's No. 5 farm state, with an economy built around cattle, wheat, corn and sorghum. CNBC has linked the tightening race to trade, beef import and immigration policies affecting agriculture.

Marshall led by 8 points in a January poll by the Democratic firm Tavern Research. Recent surveys show a much closer race. A YouGov poll conducted September 24 to October 4 had Hamilton ahead 48 percent to 45 percent, while a New York Times/Siena College poll from late September showed Marshall leading 47 to 46. The FiftyPlusOne polling average gives Hamilton 46.7 percent to Marshall's 45.1 percent.

In early September, Kalshi gave Marshall an 82.8 percent chance of winning. Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now put his chances at 61 to 63 percent. He remains the favorite, but his advantage has narrowed.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans, made a seven-figure advertising buy in Kansas after pausing its ads in North Carolina, the Associated Press reported. Former Republican Governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden have endorsed Hamilton.

Iowa

Iowa is one of the nation's biggest agricultural states, but Republican Ashley Hinson is facing a tougher-than-expected Senate race. Democrat Josh Turek has pulled ahead in some polls, as a shifting national environment puts the seat Republicans hoped to hold in play.

Iowa ranks second in the nation in farm receipts, led by corn, hogs and soybeans. Hinson, a former television news anchor who represents Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, is running against Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs and a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. The seat is open after Republican Senator Joni Ernst decided to retire.

Hinson led Turek by 4 points in a Democratic poll taken in March, two weeks after the war began. The RealClearPolitics average now gives Turek a 0.6-point lead.

An Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted October 5 and 6 found Hinson ahead 47 to 45. A Suffolk University poll days earlier had Turek leading 48 to 44, an 8-point swing from Suffolk's August survey.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said voters over 50 "break for Hinson over Turek for Senate by 13."

Hinson's chances on Kalshi have fallen from above 80 percent earlier in the year to about 55 percent.

Texas

Texas is the nation's No. 4 agricultural state and its top livestock producer by value, largely because of cattle. It was also one of Donald Trump's strongest states in 2024.

Now, Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton in poll after poll, as voters focus on rising costs and Republicans struggle to turn the race around.

"The absolute best thing he has going for him is that he's running against Ken Paxton," Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who studies Latino voters, told Newsweek. Madrid also credited Talarico with openly calling former President Joe Biden's border policy a fiasco and arguing that the economy was leaving middle-class Americans behind.

An Emerson poll in January showed Paxton and Talarico tied at 46 percent. A Fox News poll conducted September 24 to 28 put Talarico ahead 51 to 49, while a YouGov poll from late September and early October gave him a 50 to 44 lead. A Trafalgar Group poll released last week showed Talarico leading 47.1 to 43.6.

Prediction markets give Talarico a 63 to 64 percent chance of winning, up from about 40 percent on Kalshi after Paxton won the Republican runoff in May.

Republicans have attacked Talarico as a socialist and questioned his masculinity, but those attacks have yet to translate into better polling numbers for Paxton. Madrid said voters are more concerned about the cost of living.

"So the price of diesel is destroying communities, not just because of the price, but you can't afford to do that work that you do," he said. "You can't afford to run the ranch the way you'd like to. You can't even afford to get to the grocery store to pick up groceries."

Texas has more diesel-powered personal pickup trucks than any other state.

Nebraska

Donald Trump won Nebraska by 20 points in 2024, but the state's Senate race is far closer. Independent Dan Osborn is running neck and neck with Republican Senator Pete Ricketts in some polls, though prediction markets still favor the incumbent.

Nebraska is the nation's No. 3 agricultural state and its top cattle producer. Ricketts, a two-term former governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2023 and won a special election for the seat the following year.

Osborn, an industrial mechanic, labor leader and Navy veteran, lost to Republican Senator Deb Fischer by fewer than 7 points in 2024, even as Trump won the state by 20. Osborn has said he would not caucus with Democrats, and the state Democratic Party is backing him after its nominee declined the nomination.

Polls were nearly tied before the war and remain close. Lake Research, a Democratic firm, had Ricketts ahead 48 to 47 in December. A YouGov poll from September 24 to October 3 put Osborn ahead 48 to 47, while an NPA Polling survey for Republicans released Monday showed Ricketts leading 46 to 43.

Kalshi gives Ricketts a 73 percent chance of winning, while Decision Desk HQ's model puts his chances at 81 percent, down from 87 percent in August.

North Carolina

North Carolina was one of Trump's closest wins in 2024. Now, Democrat Roy Cooper has built a substantial lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the race to replace retiring Senator Thom Tillis, with polls and prediction markets pointing toward a Democratic pickup.

North Carolina ranks 10th in the nation in farm receipts, led by poultry and hogs. Cooper served two terms as governor, while Whatley is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee who has Trump's endorsement.

Cooper led Whatley by 5 points in a January poll by the Democratic firm Change Research. He now leads by 9 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Kalshi and Polymarket give Cooper a 95 to 96 percent chance of winning.

Whatley has defended Trump's tariffs and the Iran war, while Cooper has called for ending both, WRAL reported. An East Carolina University poll found the share of undecided voters falling from 14 percent to 6 percent, with Cooper ahead 50 to 43.

Peter Francia, director of ECU's Center for Survey Research, said Whatley needs to change the trajectory of the race. "If he cannot, then Roy Cooper will continue to maintain the lead that he's held in our first two polls," Francia told WITN.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas