By Almira Louise S. Martinez
COFFEE PRICES in the Philippines could rise even further in December, continuing through the first quarter of 2027 as El Niño dampens output and labor costs rise, the Philippine Coffee Board, Inc. said.
“Now it’s harvest season, and it’s a low-harvest season. Those with money will try to hoard as many beans as they can, and those that work on a per-order basis will lose their supply,” Board Director Ceasario Rex Choi P. Kapunan told reporters.
“On top of the coffee prices going up, it’s also gas and labor costs…” he added. “I think commercial establishments may raise prices in December.”
The board had forecast coffee production to fall below 30,000 metric tons (MT) in 2026, well below the 35,645 MT reported last year by the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Rising temperatures across planting areas, along with increased input costs, were linked to the likely decline in output.
“All agriculture sectors are going to be affected, not just coffee,” Board Chairman Pacita U. Juan told reporters. “We usually harvest in the first quarter. We’ll know in the first quarter what the dip in the harvest is.”
Mr. Kapunan noted that the decline in domestic output coincides with the difficulty in sourcing imported beans, particularly from Brazil.
“I think for a majority of café owners and coffee roasters in the last three years, our main blend has Brazil in it,” he said. “Brazil beans are now number one, expensive. Number two, not available.”
“It’s hard to import Brazil beans because there’s really no stock. Even the big traders cannot source it,” he added.
The Philippines remains one of the world’s largest coffee importers, as domestic production covers only about 40% of its market requirement.
Mr. Kapunan said most café owners rely on foreign beans because they are more affordable than domestic equivalents. Brazilian beans are currently priced at least P650 per kilo, while Arabica beans from Benguet sell for around P750 to P900 per kilo.
The steep price of domestic beans is also expected to drive more consumers to other suppliers, such as Vietnam and Laos.
“It’s always a balance between what the quality of your product is, how much it is, and what the consumers are willing to pay for,” he said.
With the possible surge in coffee prices, consumers are likely to transform their coffee-drinking habits and explore more home-brewing methods.
“It’s easy to buy an espresso machine now. It’s easy to buy pour-over and all the equipment because of our closeness to China,” Ms. Juan said.
“It will not change the number of cups you drink a day, but it will change where you drink the coffee,” Ms. Juan said. “Home brewing will increase, but I think the habits of people will not change.”
The US Department of Agriculture expects Philippine coffee consumption during marketing year 2025 to 2026 to rise 9.05% to 405,000 MT.