Malawi’s inflation rate fell for a tenth consecutive month to 19.4 per cent in September 2026, down from a peak of 29.1 per cent a year earlier, but economists warn the country remains an outlier in a region where most economies have achieved single-digit inflation.
According to economist Kisu Simwaka, the decline has been driven largely by lower food prices following recent harvests, while underlying price pressures remain severe.
Non-food inflation stood at 31.5 per cent in September, far above the Reserve Bank of Malawi’s 5 per cent target.
The contrast with neighbouring countries is striking. Tanzania and South Africa recorded inflation of 4.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively, while Zambia, Mozambique and Angola posted rates between 6 and 8 per cent after maintaining tight monetary and fiscal policies.
Simwaka said the experience of countries such as Zambia and Mozambique shows that curbing central bank financing of government deficits and maintaining policy discipline can restore price stability.
He also warned against premature policy easing, pointing to renewed inflation pressures in Kenya, Uganda and Ghana.
While headline inflation could fall further to between 17 and 19 per cent by year-end, the outlook is threatened by forecasts of below-normal rainfall between October 2026 and March 2027.
A drought could hit food production and hydropower generation, pushing inflation back to 23-25 per cent by early 2027.
Unlike Zambia and Mozambique, which have stronger foreign exchange reserves and grain stocks, Malawi has less than three months of import cover and limited strategic reserves.
Simwaka argued that lasting progress will require the government to maintain a restrictive policy stance, end reliance on central bank deficit financing and invest in reforms to strengthen food and energy security.
“Malawi has made progress,” he said, “but there are no shortcuts to achieving the 5 per cent inflation target.”
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