Nattrass | E+ | Getty Images
A version of this article appeared in CNBC's Inside Wealth newsletter, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Eighty-five percent of family offices rank artificial intelligence as their top investment theme, despite 75% expecting an AI bubble to burst within the next five years, according to a new survey. The poll of 155 North American family offices was conducted by RBC Wealth Management and Campden Wealth.
RBC's Bill Ringham said these mixed feelings about AI can be traced to several potential factors, including cautious optimism about the technology and concerns about sitting on the sidelines of an investment boom.
"Even patient capital can be caught up in the fear of missing out," said the director of private wealth strategies.
A combined 85% of respondents ranked AI an asset class or investment theme likely to reward investors over the next 12 months, the next two to five years, or both. The next most popular picks were U.S. equities and direct investments, selected by 76% and 72% of respondents, respectively.
However, while AI was the top investment theme of 2026 at 59%, family offices said they were more bullish on U.S. equities in the long run. When asked about returns over the next two to five years, 69% of respondents chose U.S. equities compared to 64% for AI. Direct investments closely followed at 62%. And while only 26% of family offices said real estate was likely to reward shareholders over the next 12 months, nearly twice as many (51%) picked it as a rewarding investment in the two- to five-year horizon.
Ringham said the results may reflect how AI enthusiasm is influencing investors' short-term focus more than their long-term strategy.
"Fear of missing out is a short-term view," he said. "You're seeing AI over the next 12 months as being that top priority. Their long-term look swings back."
Ringham said family offices were cautiously optimistic about AI, especially in the startup space.
"Those optimists are also not afraid to say that there might be a bubble down the road," he said. "You're investing in what you think is going to be incredibly successful in the longer term. But at this stage, there are so many new companies that you really have to go into these things with your eyes wide open."
The survey found that 76% of respondents ranked "excessive government borrowing" as the top market risk likely to crystallize over the next five years. That was followed by "AI investment bubble burst" (75%) and "AI advancements impact employment" (66%).
While the survey did not ask how family offices planned to change their allocations around AI, Ringham said that many asset classes are touched by the technology. 31% of family offices planned to make more direct investments in private equity and just over a fifth said the same of real estate and venture capital, respectively.
"I'm sure AI is embedded in a lot of those underlying categories," he said.