It hasn’t been a very interesting championship so far. Well… let’s actually call it as it is: it’s been pretty dull, with Kimi Antonelli grabbing the lead and refusing to let anyone touch it from early on.
That young Italian fella has certainly made sure we have nothing to get excited about in terms of the title fight. And even if the chances of him securing it in Austin in two weeks’ time are relatively slim, you’d be forgiven for wishing it would happen sooner rather than later. Especially, if you’re also sick of all this fake narrative about a possible comeback from George Russell or whoever else. No, let him just seal it right there and then, so we can enjoy the rest of the races, knowing there’s nothing major left at stake.
Still, it’s been quite an interesting season to observe. Not sure you follow, dear reader, but I’ll try to explain…
Doesn’t Max Verstappen’s latest win make you wonder whether everything you thought about the current season is actually true? Because it was quite clear, wasn’t it, that Mercedes had just clawed its way back to where it belonged with that regulation change?
They’ve simply done it again, as in 2014: built the best power unit, produced the best chassis and are now cruising towards winning both championships this year - and not only that… They’re surely now favourites for the next couple of years too, until they hit the ceiling of what is possible in terms of performance with this ruleset and their rivals finally manage to catch up.
How long did it take anyone to catch up back then? Until 2017 at least, when Sebastian Vettel could at least mount something resembling a challenge - and still lost out well before that year’s championship ended. It really only happened in 2021, didn’t it - when Red Bull finally produced the car and Verstappen was ready to take on the challenge against the team that had by then won god knows how many titles in a row.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images
Seeing how dominant Mercedes was until at least early summer this year, you wouldn’t have been too wrong to assume we were heading into another era of Wolff and co domination.
I have to admit I did believe so. And I am sure many of you did, too.
But it's not that clear anymore, is it?
That second win in a row for Verstappen at least provides some grounds for an alternative theory. Because the Mercedes run in early 2026 could be something different. Of course, you can’t take anything away from them. They did indeed produce an incredibly strong engine, which is most likely - despite the ADUO rankings - the current benchmark. And the W17 is a very decent car, too - no doubt about that. But could it be that the early dominance of the Silver Arrows was simply a logical consequence of the events from last year and the beginning of this one?
After all, Mercedes wasn’t involved in the title fight back in 2025, so could concentrate solely on getting ready for 2026 - unlike Red Bull and McLaren, who were forced, by each other, to keep pushing until the very end of last season.
The works team status certainly helped Mercedes gain an edge over McLaren in exploiting the new power unit better - and it’s not even a theory, but an undeniable fact. Let’s make it clear: it’s not because Mercedes is hiding something from its customers - it’s just natural that these customers don’t have as much knowledge about it as Mercedes itself. And they needed time. That advantage, judging by McLaren’s progress during the summer, is nearly gone now. Perhaps not entirely - but probably close to it.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Joe Portlock / Getty Images
And now this…
It looked as if Red Bull had squeezed almost everything out of its development budget already in the first half of the year, but it appears that wasn’t the case.
The Baku upgrade may have delivered the biggest hint so far that it’s not going to be that easy for Mercedes to hold on to its advantage from early 2026 - and that its rivals aren’t just catching up, but already have. After all, if you only count the last five rounds of the championship, Verstappen would be leading it, and with quite a healthy margin over Antonelli. Quite a comeback, isn’t it? For a team that started the season almost in the midfield.
To underestimate Mercedes would surely be stupid. After all, there’s no guarantee Wolff’s engineers didn’t throw all the files containing possible development plans for the W17 into the bin sometime in April, seeing how big the gap was to the opposition, and start working on next year’s car. Could that be the reason the package introduced in Malaysia hasn’t actually made the Silver Arrows quicker? But even if that’s not the case, there’s no reason to believe they’ll continue struggling - if you can even call a team grabbing podiums on a bad weekend “struggling” at all.
But two wins in a row from a team that has also had its fair share of domination over the last couple of decades are no joke.
It would be interesting to hear what Max thinks about F1 2026 now, wouldn’t it? Well, the context of the answer - even if you were to ask the question - is quite predictable. He’ll say that the fact he’s winning doesn’t mean he thinks these regulations are now what Formula 1 needs - but he’d at least make a funny joke about it. And there’s no doubt he feels a whole lot different now compared with the beginning of the year, when not only was he driving a car he didn’t like - it was also painfully slow by his standards.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images
He chose to stick with the team even before it properly recovered to the position it is enjoying right now - and damn, what a wise move it was! You’d think the numbers in the contract in front of him would still be slightly lower nowadays, but, joking aside, these numbers won’t mean much to him anyway, as he’s already earned enough to finance the next few generations of Verstappens - but the fact that the team, which has lost so many people, still keeps delivering must be reassuring.
It’s not going to change anything this year. Max can probably win a couple more races - but what must excite him the most right now is the prospect of 2027. If Red Bull keeps up the same pace, he’s certainly going to have another go at the world championship.
It’s also tempting to start imagining what a classic next year could be if Verstappen can challenge Antonelli for the big prize in equal machinery. Kimi is a generational talent, there’s not a single doubt about it left. To some extent, he’s just an improved version of Verstappen himself. Focused entirely on racing, bloody quick and consistent - and, at least until now, hasn’t shown his dark side.
And that could be such a great thing for F1 itself, if there were a bit of sporting intrigue to distract attention from all the talk about power units. Just a good old-school battle between the greatest drivers in the world.
Max would surely enjoy it more than a repeat of 2023. Especially if not only Antonelli, but also Lewis Hamilton had a decent car to fight with - making it three generational talents battling for one big prize.