Lorne Gunter: Alberta voters unsure where Premier Danielle Smith stands on separation

One of the political hangovers from next Monday’s separatism referendum (and let’s be honest, the separation question is the only one of the 10 referendum questions most Albertans care about), will be the continued trouble separatists supporters will give Premier Danielle Smith in trying to hold the United Conservative Party together.

She will have no one to blame but herself. She cozied up to the separatists to get elected leader in 2022. Called a referendum to try to placate what they saw as her growing hostility to their movement. And she has so badly confused her messaging on the question of separation that a lot of federalist voters have become convinced she is a separatist at heart, while a lot of separatists suspect her of harbouring pro-Ottawa sympathies.

Since she called the referendum, Smith has seeming wanted to stand with one foot on either side of pointy picket fence.

Last Friday, when asked by the CBC if there would be a second referendum if Albertans vote next Monday to stay in Canada, Smith said emphatically, “Not as long as I’m premier!”

That was the most definitive statement Smith has yet made on the subject. But it comes after a summer of flip-flopping by the premier. Sometimes sounding as if she would bend to the separatists’ demands for a simple yes-or-no vote on independence and sometimes sounding more emphatically “No.”

After having promised a second and binding referendum next spring, Smith has since stated that holding such a vote “into that (tight) timeline would be legally and logistically complicated.”

For instance, there is a provincial general election, scheduled by law, for next Oct. 18. Holding a second referendum, say in May, would be difficult just five months shy of an election.

Then there are the constitutional questions raised by First Nations. Typically, a person or group has to be aggrieved by some government action or law before seeking redress in court. But back in May a Federal Court ruled that failure to consult Alberta’s First Nations in advance made any potential referendum unconstitutional.

This is a badly flawed decision, but it is unresolved. That means that Smith is right about clearing all the hurdles to a second referendum in the next six months makes a second referendum unlikely in the next six months.

To be fair, most of the premier’s seeming flip-flopping about a second referendum has been over the need to hold another one if the separatists win a majority next Monday. Her firm stance against a second referendum articulated to the CBC last week was about holding another vote if the separatists win on Monday.

The two are not the same, but the difference is so hairsplitting that most voters will only see a premier who has sent mixed messages throughout the whole process.

Smith has not had a clear plan nor a clear message throughout this entire process because, rather than leading on the question of separation, Smith has all along being trying merely to stay one step ahead of her internal, UCP foes. Her actions have been largely reactionary (and self-inflicted).

I blame Smith’s push-me, pull-you behaviour for her loss of approval, especially in Calgary where she is now second to NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi.

Lots of voters are unsure which Danielle Smith is the real Danielle Smith.

Speaking at an Edmonton Chamber of Commerce function alongside former NDP premier Rachel Notley on Tuesday, former UCP premier Jason Kenney said that once the referendum in concluded, and if the federalists win big, Smith must conduct a “reckoning” within her party. She must plant firm federalist roots and kick out anyone who refuses to put their joint loyalty to Alberta and to Canada first.

The UCP’s separatist members have to be stopped from dominating party conventions, the provincial board of directors, policy debates and local nominating meetings.

If Smith cannot pull that off, she (and Albertans) will be right back at this with six months to a year.

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