A Russian satellite is stalking a U.S. spacecraft in orbit. Experts are worried
How close is too close for encounters between sensitive spacecraft orbiting Earth? With a mysterious approach to another satellite, Russia’s military may be trying to find out
By Mary Randolph edited by Lee Billings
A short time-lapse image shows the Russian satellite KOSMOS-2612 (fainter dot at right) chasing the Finnish-American satellite ICEYE-X36 (bright dot at left) over South America on the morning of October 18, 2026. The spacecrafts’ separation at the time was less than five kilometers and subsequently dropped to as little as tens of meters.
s2a systems
A Russian satellite came dangerously close to a Finnish-American satellite this weekend in a provocative maneuver that could foreshadow the new norm for space warfare.
According to public orbital tracking data, KOSMOS-2612, a Russian satellite launched in April with very few details disclosed, approached too close for comfort to ICEYE-X36, an imaging satellite from the Finnish company ICEYE that is owned by its U.S. subsidiary and has been used by the Ukrainian military. Nobody knows quite what KOSMOS-2612 did or what its intentions were, but the two satellites were, at most, a few hundred meters apart, with some estimates putting the distance at within 30 meters. Though the exact distance is unclear, the encounter still appears to be the closest known deliberate and uninvited interaction between two active spacecraft in low-Earth orbit.
No explanatory or corroborating statements have emerged from Russian or U.S. defense officials or from ICEYE, leaving outside experts to speculate about the apparent orbital game of cat and mouse that unfolded overhead.
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Such a maneuver is not inherently aggressive or ill-intentioned, says Victoria Samson, head of space policy at the Secure World Foundation. But when taken in the context, the close approach is concerning.
“You’re looking at what Russia is doing here, not in terms, specifically, of what’s happening in space but as part of a larger examination of what’s happening on Earth,” Samson says. “Russia and Ukraine are literally at war with each other. And so it’s kind of tinting how you view Russia’s activities here.”
This maneuver is known as a rendezvous and proximity operation (RPO), and it’s not quite as straightforward as the simple formation flying that is routinely performed with airplanes. To get close to another object in orbit, a spacecraft needs to get itself into the same orbital plane and then change its velocity until it essentially matches the speed as its target so that the two don’t just zoom by each other.
Besides raising the odds of a catastrophic collision, such maneuvers usually require burning a lot of propellant, which is a nonrenewable resource. So satellite operators tend to only attempt them for very compelling reasons. In this case, the reason seems obvious: Russian officials have been unhappy about Ukraine’s purported use of ICEYE-X36’s synthetic aperture radar imaging, which can see through clouds and smoke to track and guide activity on the ground below. A Ukrainian official confirmed to Axios that the nation’s military works with the Finnish satellite company, and ICEYE announced earlier this year that it had signed a collaborative agreement with Ukraine’s defense ministry. ICEYE-X36 launched in 2024, two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
KOSMOS-2612’s stalking could be chiefly a warning meant to signal capability, or it could instead be intended for more direct and nefarious action: During an RPO, an aggressor satellite can do any number of things to its target, including taking pictures, jamming communications, blocking sensors or even physically disabling and pushing the other spacecraft out of orbit. Under pressure, the operators of ICEYE-X36 could well decide the spacecraft must burn precious propellant of its own to escape or elude KOSMOS-2612 or other threatening satellites, shortening the mission’s operational lifetime.
Russia’s maneuver has also come as Ukraine has faced broader interference with space-based support for its defense against Russia’s ongoing invasion: Ukrainian war fighters and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky have reported widespread throttling of SpaceX’s satellite-based Starlink and Starshield services on the battlefield.
The technology to accomplish RPOs is rapidly improving: China, the U.S., Russia and several private companies have all been independently testing their RPO capabilities for the past several years. Radar tracking data show that, since May, other KOSMOS satellites have been maneuvering around ICEYE-X36 in provocative maneuvers that have been explicitly called out by the U.S. Space Force.
There are few official international regulations related to these types of maneuvers, and conducting one nonconsensually breaks norms and crosses ill-defined lines for mutual safe operations on-orbit, Samson says. Unsolicited RPOs might be interpreted as aggressive—or even as an act of war. And already high tensions on the high frontier now seem set to soar: last month the U.S. Space Force announced that it had placed weapons in space. (The U.S. did not disclose many other details about the weapons, but some experts believe they’re communication jammers with RPO capabilities.)
Although ground-based surveillance now allows close tracking of most satellites, without public statements from operators of secretive spacecraft, it’s harder to know what, exactly, they’re up to when conducting maneuvers such as this one. Samson says there’s little to do, for now, besides watching the mysterious drama play out overhead.
“We’re going to wait and see what happens,” she says. “This kind of thing can change quickly, but I would hold off hysterical speculation until we know more about it.”