IMF warns of slowing Asian growth, spillover from rising yields

Published Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · 02:10 PM

[BANGKOK] The International Monetary Fund on Thursday (Oct 15) projected Asia’s economic growth would moderate next year and warned of heightening risks from the Iran war-induced energy shock, a potential correction in the AI boom and spillovers from rising global bond yields.

In a report on the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, the global lender also said uncertainty over the US monetary policy path could keep Asian financial markets volatile.

“Exchange rates and capital flows have become more volatile since the energy shock this year,” with several emerging economies experiencing depreciation pressures, the IMF said in the report issued during its annual meetings in Bangkok.

While foreign investment inflows in the region remain generally robust, such moves have coincided with some portfolio outflows such as from South Korean technology stocks, it said.

“The US monetary stance is expected to continue to tighten later this year. The combination of monetary policy tightening and fiscal pressures in most major advanced economies is likely to keep upward pressures on yields across Asia and the Pacific.”

The IMF said it now expects Asia’s economy to grow 4.8 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, higher than projections made in April but still slowing from a 5 per cent expansion in 2025.

The revisions largely reflected the boost from the AI boom for advanced Asian economies, with their growth expected to accelerate to 3.2 per cent in 2026 from 2.5 per cent last year, it said.

Emerging Asia remains the region’s main growth engine but will likely see growth moderate to 5.1 per cent in 2026 from 5.6 per cent last year due to the hit from higher energy prices, the report said.

“Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside” as a prolonged stalemate in the Middle East conflict could keep commodity prices high and deplete oil reserves, the IMF said.

A correction in AI demand could weigh on global growth, with the effects likely to be particularly pronounced in Asia given its extensive exposure to the AI production chain.

With global yields rising, market stress in major sovereign issuers like the US, the UK, euro zone and Japan could spill over to Asian bond markets, pushing up yields and exacerbating already-elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, it said.

“With public debt and borrowing needs remaining high across much of the region, an abrupt tightening of financial conditions could further strain public finances by raising debt-servicing costs,” the IMF said.

Focus on price stability

This week’s IMF meetings have been dominated by worries about growing debt, rising bond yields and risks from the AI boom. Those concerns add to policymakers’ headaches over the energy shock blamed on the Middle East conflict that has led to broad-based rises in inflation.

Japan’s Nikkei share average tumbled nearly 5 per cent on Thursday as tech stocks were hit hard by concern over the AI sector’s profitability, while hot US inflation figures sparked fears of higher interest rates.

While long-term inflation expectations remain broadly anchored in Asia, central banks should continue to focus on price stability, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF‘s Asia and Pacific Department, told a press conference.

“Central banks should communicate clearly and be ready to tighten where expectations are less anchored, frameworks are less credible, or inflation is more persistent. To support this, the independence of central banks must be maintained,” he said.

With public debt remaining above pre-pandemic levels, the scope for additional fiscal spending is increasingly constrained, Srinivasan said.

Fiscal policy should be targeted and temporary, he said, urging countries in the region to avoid blanket fuel subsidies or price controls that could be more costly. REUTERS