Trump's diesel deal not expected to lower prices

US President Donald Trump says a new deal with Russia will lower diesel prices, but experts say it won't "move the dial" on costs for consumers.

Mr Trump is also being criticised for forging an agreement that defies his country's stance on depriving Russia of income to fund its war against Ukraine.

Here's what we know about the deal and the impact it could have.

What's in this new deal?

Diesel prices have reached near-record highs in the US, sparking concern in highly reliant sectors such as agriculture and transport.

Mr Trump announced on the weekend he had brokered a deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, which would see Moscow supply diesel "to the American and global marketplace".

He said this would include:

• 272,000 tonnes "immediately"; then
• 454,000 tonnes next month; then
• 907,000 tonnes "immediately thereafter"; and then
• 2.72 million tons "within a short period of time"

Here's the exact wording to Mr Trump's "very big and important announcement":

Shortly afterwards, the Russian government said it had partially lifted a ban on diesel exports, which it announced in July after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

Kyiv and Moscow have been targeting each other's critical energy infrastructure.

Before the weekend was out, Mr Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Ukraine and Russia would begin immediately, without elaborating on the details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later said the ceasefire was "news to me" but he supported it if Russia stopped striking energy targets.

However, he said Russian attacks had continued despite Mr Trump's announcement.

There was no immediate comment from the Russian government.

Will the deal lower diesel prices?

Analysts don't think it'll make much of a difference in the long run.

Diesel prices are high due to Russia and China halting international diesel exports to sure up their domestic supply, the ongoing war in Iran, and attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol has said the conditions "merit immediate attention".

Dr Birol called for members to speed up the delivery of their planned exports and consider increasing the amount they're exporting.

Ron Bousso, an energy columnist for news syndicate Reuters, told ABC Radio National the deal would not have a large effect on prices.

"If you put together all the numbers that Donald Trump said Russia would supply, it totals 12 hours of global supply," Mr Bousso said

However, he says the energy ceasefire could be more effective.

"The energy ceasefire could, in theory, change the picture, although repairing a lot of those refineries would probably take months anyhow," Mr Russo said.

"So again, we're not talking about anything immediate."

Why make the deal?

The US mid-term elections are coming up. While they won't end in the election of a new president, they could see Mr Trump's Republican Party losing seats, which would make it much more difficult for him to pass laws.

With high diesel prices driving up the cost of essentials, this could turn voters against Republicans.

"We see from polls that American voters are extremely worried about the cost of living," Mr Bousso said.

"And Trump is well aware of that."

When Mr Trump announced the deal, he said it would see diesel prices drop "fast".

And while some experts don't think this would be the case, Mr Trump could use the deal to spruik his efforts to cut the cost of living to woo voters.

Backlash within Republican ranks

Mr Trump's deal has attracted criticism from some Republicans, including his former vice-president, Mike Pence.

Only last month, Mr Trump signed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill into law, calling it the Lindsey ⁠O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, to honour the Republican who died earlier this year.

Mr Pence said the deal made no sense and would be a betrayal of Mr Graham's legacy.

"Instead of implementing the tough sanctions Lindsey Graham fought to his last breath to enact, President Trump has announced the United States is lifting sanctions on Russian energy, fuelling Putin's war machine," he said on X.

"President Trump should rescind this deal immediately and return to the strong policies of our four years in the White House [and] impose harsh sanctions on any nation purchasing Russian energy …"

Four other Republican senators, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis and John Curti, joined three Democrats to issue a statement rebuking the president over the deal.

"The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians," they said.

"The Administration must immediately reverse course."

Retiring Republican politician Don Bacon said: "Propping up Putin's war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities."

'Conflicting messages'

William Taylor, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, told ABC News Breakfast Mr Trump would violate laws with this diesel deal.

"There are laws that were put in place when the Russians first invaded Ukraine, and then when they invaded again in 2022," Mr Taylor said.

"And these laws are meant to put pressure on Putin.

"President Trump wants to end this war but he also wants to bring down the price of fuel.

"So President Trump has conflicting messages and conflicting incentives."

ABC with Reuters