Three things to watch when UNC goes to Duke

UNC versus Duke in anything ups the ante. On top of that, Bill Belichick will seek to build on the momentum of winning at Pittsburgh last weekend. Manny Diaz will try to go 2-0 against the NFL’s GOAT. Both teams hope to move to 2-1 in conference play, keeping alive distant hopes of challenging for an ACC title game appearance. If that sounds ludicrous, remember that last year’s game featured 10-2 Virginia against 7-5 Duke, a game Duke won to earn its first ACC football title outright since 1962.

What are three things to watch in this game?

How many more plays will Duke’s offense run than UNC’s?

Three-and-outs have been a problem for UNC this season. The offense has too many; the defense has too few.

UNC’s defense this season has been on the field for 363 snaps in five games. Cumulatively, UNC’s opponents have held the ball an average of seven minutes more per game more. TCU and ETSU each ran 14 more plays on offense than UNC. Notre Dame ran 23 more, and Pitt ran 34 more. 34 plays is an extra half of football.

Two seasons into this, that appears to be by design, a pattern seen last year as well. UNC’s defense, for the second year in a row, is allowing opponents to reach third down frequently and then surrendering a high conversion rate. Those two things obviously go together – allowing a first down means another third down to face in all likelihood. Last season, UNC’s defense was among the nation’s worst at third down conversion rate, ranking 104th by the end of the season. This season: 110th through five games, despite facing a weak set of offenses outside of Notre Dame. Extra sets of downs add up.

Supporters of the approach argue that UNC’s defense makes up for it by preventing explosive plays and stiffening in the red zone. So, in their estimation third down defense doesn’t really matter. Certainly, allowing fewer points is the main goal, and preventing explosive plays plus good red zone defense correlate strongly to denying teams points. However, the debate tends to reduce things to a binary, as if good 3rd down defense and limiting explosive plays are mutually exclusive of each other.

That’s a debate for another time, though. Every defensive strategy has benefits and costs, risks and rewards. UNC’s approach exposes its defense to significantly more plays per game, which in turn stresses depth during the game and exposes starters to more injury risk. It also limits the number of bites at the apple that Bobby Petrino’s offense gets to score points. The strategic calculation comes with costs.

UNC’s defense survived having to play 85 snaps against Pitt, but Duke will hope to hold the ball and wear down UNC’s defense over the course of the game for the third week in a row. Can UNC’s defense get off the field, and can UNC’s offense sustain drives to give the defense time to rest?

Who will start in Tre Miller’s place, and can Duke take advantage?

Against both Clemson and TCU, UNC at times rotated Peyton Waters to the cornerback spot opposite Jaiden Patterson and put Coleman Bryson into the game at safety. Bryson provided too many highlights of the wrong kind against Clemson in the second half and against Notre Dame, which put Tre Miller back into the mix against Pittsburgh. Miller played exceptionally well until he was injured and lost for the season.

With both Kaleb Cost and Tre Miller injured, UNC initially went with true freshman Kenton Dopson, a four star recruit that UNC flipped from Miami. Pittsburgh went right at him, completing five of six passes for 76 yards. Javion Butts replaced him and delivered better results.

Against Duke, run support by the cornerbacks will be as important as pass coverage. Expect Duke to test Butts or Dopson in both of those responsibilities early. How UNC fares in that match up will go a long way to determining the course of the game.

Can UNC stop Duke’s Nate Sheppard?

Against FBS opponents, Duke averages 211 yards on the ground per game at 5.1 yards per carry. RB Nate Sheppard is the best player on Duke’s team, and Duke tries to get him the ball any way it can. Sheppard’s 135 touches (118 rushes, 17 catches) are almost 40% of Duke’s plays. His 904 combined yards are almost 40% of Duke’s offense. His 11 touchdowns are exactly half of Duke’s end zone visits.

Note that the first two things to watch are both key factors for the third. The more first downs Duke gets, the more chances Sheppard gets to break a big run. The more plays Duke runs, the more fatigued the defensive front seven will get. The more success Duke has exploiting a potential weak link in the pass coverage likely gives Sheppard more room to operate.

What are your thoughts on UNC’s game against Duke?