CXMT 4F² Chip Hype Seen As Overblown

CXMT memory semiconductor. (Photo source: Baidu) Although concerns are growing that China’s CXMT will threaten the technological competitiveness of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix with its new technology, analyses are pouring in from the semiconductor industry and the stock market that it is premature to judge it as a substantial threat. Opinions are emerging that even if the new technology is applied first, it is not easy to narrow the technological gap with domestic companies because the company must secure a stable yield (the ratio of good products) and cost competitiveness to succeed in mass production. According to the industry on Oct. 15, as CXMT recently announced that it would apply the new ‘Four F Square (4F²)’ technology, a next-generation DRAM cell structure, to server DDR5 DRAMs and launch it within the year, concerns are spreading that the memory technology leadership of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could be shaken. 4F² is an indicator of the area of a DRAM cell, and it can reduce the cell area by 33% compared to the currently widely used ‘6F²’ structure. For memory cells of the same area, a product made with the 4F² structure can store significantly more data, which is drawing attention as a next-generation DRAM technology. Interpretations also emerged that if CXMT actually applies this technology within the year, it will be two years ahead of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, assessments are coming out day after day in the industry that it is too early to judge CXMT’s new technology development as a practical threat to domestic companies. U.S. investment bank Rosenblatt stated, “The actual threat of CXMT’s 4F² technology is merely at the level of a ‘paper tiger’,” and added, “Considering the current market demand, even if this technology is utilized immediately, its economic feasibility will not be significant.” Points are also being raised in the stock market that ‘technology application’ and ‘economically viable mass production’ are strictly different, and it is unreasonable to interpret this as securing actual competitiveness. Kim Dong-won, head of the research center at KB Securities, analyzed in a report on this day, “Memory competitiveness is determined not by simple new process development, but by stable mass production, yield securement, and customer certification capabilities,” adding, “The market’s concern over China’s technological pursuit is excessive.” Kim assessed, “The DRAM process technology gap between Samsung Electronics and CXMT reaches 5 to 7 years.” Kwon Seok-joon, a professor at the Department of Chemical Engineering at Sungkyunkwan University, also explained on his social network service (SNS), “There were no expressions such as ‘mass production’ or ‘sample’ in CXMT’s announcement, and the specifications and launch date are also unclear,” and noted, “This is not a mass production announcement but a launch preview, and mass production will be at least two years away.” The industry also views the fact that CXMT is experiencing difficulties in securing advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment due to US export regulations on semiconductor equipment as a stumbling block to technology development and mass production. As the cell area becomes smaller and circuits must be implemented more finely, EUV equipment is essential. Even if some technical limitations are overcome by utilizing older deep ultraviolet (DUV) equipment, the process inevitably becomes more complex and production costs will increase. It is also noteworthy that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have already been researching 4F² technology. Song Jae-hyuk, President and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of the Device Solutions (DS) Division at Samsung Electronics, said regarding the current status of 4F² technology at the ‘Semiconductor Exhibition (SEDEX) 2026’ held at COEX in Seoul on the previous day, “We are in a situation where we are working hard to prepare.” However, the two companies did not reveal a specific 4F² roadmap. An industry official stated, “Since CXMT is investing massive capital in production capacity and R&D, we must continuously be wary of its pursuit,” and added, “Domestic companies need to speed up the development of advanced technologies from a mid-to-long-term perspective.”