Chance of storms this week as Atlantic jet stream roars into life

ByMatt Taylor

Lead Weather Presenter

The UK may see its first named storm of the autumn as forecasts show the potential for a deep area of low pressure to cross the UK later this week.

A strengthening jet stream triggered by temperature contrasts across North America will cause turbulent conditions to develop.

All areas will experience rain at times, including those currently in drought, but amounts of rain will depend on the exact track of a stormy low pressure system later in the week.

After a chilly weekend, temperatures will generally remain slightly below average for mid-October.

Quiet and warm autumn so far

Autumn has been relatively calm in many areas with little in the way of disruptive weather and rainfall has remained deficient across a huge swathe of England and Wales.

Parts of Herefordshire have seen only a tenth of the rainfall typically expected by this stage of October, and the dry conditions persist for much of England. The Environment Agency recently declared severe drought for parts of southern England.

This month continues the warming trend we have seen so far this year, with mean temperatures - which is an average of maximum and minimum temperature - between 1 and 3 Celsius above normal for October.

Over the weekend, all four nations saw their lowest temperature of autumn so far. Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland dropped to minus 4 Celsius on Sunday morning with minus 2 Celsius recorded in northern England while Wales registered its first air frost of the season.

Red and brown leaves lie on top of a frost covered lawn under blue skies. Sunshine peeps through distant trees. — Image caption,
Frost on the ground in central Scotland as the UK experienced the lowest temperatures of the autumn so far over the weekend

Strong jet stream to bring turbulent weather

After a frosty start in Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday it will turn more cloudy. Overnight rain in England and Wales will largely die out and skies will brighten.

It should be a slightly milder to start the week.

Expect cloudy skies on Tuesday with rain developing again in England, Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland may be dry with some sunshine, before another band of rain arrives from the Atlantic by the end of the day.

Bands of rain will move across the UK on Wednesday before the weather takes a turn for the worst in some areas at the end of the week.

Two maps of the UK and northern France showing different scenarios for the track of a low pressure system on Friday. The first scenario shows the low centred across central-southern England with zone of strongest winds across coastal counties of Wales and southern England. The other scenario shows the low around the borders of Scotland and England, with strong winds more widely across England and Wales as well as Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. — Image caption,
Current forecasts suggest a deep low pressure system will pass the south of the UK on Friday with the strongest winds limited to southern areas

Weather models suggest there is the potential for the jet stream to guide a deep area of low pressure across the UK by Friday.

In addition to heavy rain, gales or even severe gales will be wrapped around the deep low.

At the moment most computer models take the centre of the low pressure system across the south of the UK. The highest risk of disruptive winds would be over southernmost parts of England and Wales and possibly some eastern coastal counties of England later on Friday. Such a track would leave Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland with quieter weather conditions.

However, some computer models show the deep low taking a more northerly track. If this happens, then gales and disruption could be expected more widely with impacts also in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The uncertainty of the track means the forecast could change and it is important to keep across any potential Met Office weather warnings.

Waves batter coastal defences and crash onto a passing train — Image caption,
Amber weather warnings were issued as Storm Ashley hit October 2024

Will the UK see the first named storm of the season?

The UK storm season runs from September until August and it is not unusual to reach this stage of autumn without any named storms.

If the UK Met Office or Ireland's Met Éireann expect this week's low pressure system to bring significant impacts, that would lead them to issue weather warnings at an amber level or higher . If the storm is then named, it will be called 'Storm Austen'.

It is possible that the low pressure system could follow an even more southerly track, meaning greater impacts in France and less across the UK, and the French weather service MeteoFrance could name it 'Storm Bruna'.

Developments at the end of the week will also dictate potential weather conditions into the following week, with some computer models showing further stormy weather at times, while others suggest quieter conditions under a developing high pressure system.