Probable Starters for Pivotal Rays-Guardians ALCS Game 5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will play a pivotal Game 5 of the American League Championship Series. The two teams are tied at two games apiece after the first four games, making it now a best-of-three series with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Per MLB's Sarah Langs, teams that take the series lead after winning Game 5 go on to win the series 46 of 69 times (66.7%). Based on historical data, it's safe to conclude that the winner of this upcoming game will gain control of the series.

Langs adds more context for the Rays. In the 2-3-2 format of the ALCS, the team that plays on the road for Game 5 has won the series 35 of 62 times, or 56%. Historical context favors the Rays a bit, but the game still needs to be played.

Regardless of who wins Game 5, the series will go at least six games. So that means at least one more game will be played at both Progressive Field and Tropicana Field before the American League champion is determined.

First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 5:08 p.m. eastern time. The earlier start time accounts for the teams needing to travel to Tampa Bay after the game to play Game 6.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Parker Messick Pitching Matchup Could Decide ALCS

With control of the ALCS on the line, the two teams will send their best starting pitcher to the mound. Cleveland will start left-hander Parker Messick, while Tampa Bay will go with Drew Rasmussen.

It's fitting that this ALCS could be determined by which All-Star starter outpitches the other. Ironically enough, the Rays lost Rasmussen's Game 1 start and the Guardians lost Messick's for Game 2. That trend won't continue for one of the two starters, since one team has to win.

Messick would not have previously lined up for Game 5. But because the game was pushed back a day due to rain, the left-hander will play a more critical role in determining the series outcome. And that's a situation the Guardians are certainly fine with.

Considering the track record of the two starters and the historical data on Game 5s, this game could very well determine who the American League champion is. The winner would take on the Milwaukee Brewers, the National League champion, in the World Series.

Both probable starters for Game 5 also line up for World Series Game 1 on four days' rest. So either Rasmussen or Messick will oppose Jacob Misiorowski.