I went 0-6 against the spread two weeks ago and bounced back to 5-1 last week, missing on the crazy Minnesota letdown against Purdue. That brings me near even at 17-19 ATS on the year. Another good week can get me back in the black, so let’s get straight to the picks.
Washington @ Purdue (-3.5)
Before the season, the idea that the Dawgs would be underdogs in this game would have seemed unfathomable. The Huskies were ranked #17 in the country and Purdue hadn’t won a conference game roughly since Joe Tiller and Drew Brees played in West Lafayette. Now, the Boilermakers have won two in a row (that’s a streak!) against Illinois and Minnesota- the very same Gophers team that pantsed UW at home in the conference opener. They have excelled on the back of Fami Ijeboi, a Minnesota transfer who has run 40 times for 260 yards over the last two weeks. QB Ryan Brown has shown growth, already matching last year’s 9 TD passes, but doing it against a single Int after tossing 10 of them a year ago. The Husky defense absolutely must revert to their early-season form and leave last week’s missed tackles and assignments in the rearview.
Of course, the more interesting question is what UW’s offense will look like. While Purdue’s defense has got the job done thus far in conference play, they still rank only 104th nationally in defensive SP+. Notre Dame, UCLA, and Wake Forest averaged over 40 ppg against them in their three losses. Washington’s rush offense has been DOA most of the year with sub-par blocking and RB depth that was never supposed to be forced into regular action this year. However, Demond Williams’ rib injury last week brough Elijah Brown in at QB and he immediately showed better timing and an ability to read the defense that brought the passing game to life. Was Brown’s success a mirage against an Iowa defense that let its foot off the pedal with a big lead? Will he backslide against a defense that spent the week preparing for him? Above all, Brown has to play within himself and avoid turnovers. Purdue has surged by avoiding turnovers and UW doesn’t have enough margin for error to lose the turnover differential. Maybe I’m just looking at this game through rose-colored glasses because I can’t imagine UW losing out and this looks like the best chance to win a B1G game, but I feel relatively optimistic this week.
UW 23 – Purdue 21
Ohio St @ Indiana (+3.5)
Indiana’s winning streak very nearly came to a halt last week against Nebraska. They escaped, but the task ahead only gets tougher. Despite their season-opening loss in Austin, Ohio St is #1 in the country by SP+ (for their part, Indiana is 5th). Ohio St has defended the run very well this year, which could force Josh Hoover to do more against a great secondary than he has had to do most of the year. A big theme of Indiana’s win last season in the B1G Championship Game was the pass rush, and Ohio St has questions about their own OL health. The game should be close, so I’m going to side with Jeremiah Smith, the best player in the country.
Ohio St 27 – Indiana 23
Northwestern @ Michigan St (+7)
Northwestern has been one of the best stories of the season so far, at 4-1 with their only loss a close one to Indiana. Pat Fitzgerald will face Northwestern as a HC for the first time, and Aidan Chiles will start at QB for the Cats after going in the opposite direction. Northwestern runs the ball well, especially with RB Caleb Komolafe, while the Spartans do not defend it well. Michigan St will likely be able to move the ball and whether the game stays close will depend on whether Northwestern can force negative plays and red zone stops as they have all year.
Northwestern 34 – Michigan St 24
Penn St @ Michigan (-6.5)
The amazing thing about this game is that somebody has to win. Michigan has lost their last two (and would be 2-3 but for that wild ending to open the year against Western Michigan). Penn St has dropped three in a row and does not look ready to compete in the B1G. Michigan’s struggles have bee mostly isolated to the offensive side and their run defense has been legitimately good. Penn St likes to play offense in a phone booth, so this game could get ugly. Michigan turns the ball over too much and struggles to pass consistently. The game should be low-scoring, which makes me lean toward the underdog.
Michigan 20 – Penn St 17
Nebraska @ Oregon (-7.5)
Dylan Raiola probably didn’t expect to start this game when he transferred from Nebraska to Oregon. However, he probably had that expectation because he thought he’d be backing up Dante Moore, not because he’d be coming off his worst game of the season (6/19, 43 yards, 3 turnovers). There is no confirmation yet, but it sounds like Brock Thomas is more likely to get the first crack. Nebraska’s defense has been consistently solid under Matt Ruhle. The offense has generally looked better this year with OC Dana Holgerson and QB Anthony Colandrea. Even coming off a home loss, I think Autzen gives the Ducks an edge, but this game could go either way.
Oregon 28 – Nebraska 24
Wisconsin @ UCLA (-2.5)
Even at 4-1, there is reason to remain skeptical of the Badgers. Their win over Penn St looks less impressive than it did at the time, and the rest of their victories have been against softer parts of the schedule. UCLA lost QB Nico Iamaleava for the year during the Oregon game and will likely use Ty Dieffnbach in his place. Regardless of who plays QB, Bob Chesney prefers to run the ball and the Bruins have done that well. Wisconsin is good against the run, but I’m not sure they’re good enough to stymie Wayne Knight and company. UCLA leads then nation in takeaways and Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph has already thrown 5 picks. If Wisconsin can be neutral or better in turnovers, they can keep it close, but that might be asking a lot.
UCLA 30 – Wisconsin 21