The market seems to be pricing in a fierce competition between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees, as the latest Tarik Skubal odds suggest.
The soon-to-be free agent pitcher will be the hottest commodity on the open market this winter. And it seems like it’s going to be a two-horse race, or maybe three.
The latest intel from Bet Online Sports & Casino shows that the Dodgers are the favorites to ink Skubal this winter. The current lines show the Dodgers are 3/2 (+150) frontrunners in the race. The numbers amount to a roughly 40% implied probability.
Right behind the Dodgers are the Yankees, sitting at 3/1 odds of +300. That’s roughly a 25% probability that the Yanks can pull off a Skubal signing.
A potential third horse, the New York Mets, have a 5/1 chance of landing the two-time Cy Young winner.
As such, the most recent Tarik Skubal odds show that this is pretty much a two-team race, unless the Mets can somehow figure out a way to convince Skubal’s representation that the Yankees and the wrong New York team for him, and the Dodgers, well, are done as a World Series contender.
Tarik Skubal Odds Show a Sad Reality
The Skubal sweepstakes will become a testament to the ongoing cry for a salary cap in MLB. There is only a handful of teams that can realistically compete for the 29-year-old.
That’s why the Tarik Skubal odds fall off dramatically after the Mets.
The San Francisco Giants are listed at 7/1 with the Seattle Mariners at 9/1. Thereafter, teams like the Chicago Cubs have 21/1 odds, and so on.
The bottom line is only about six or seven teams really have the deep pockets to sign Skubal. Potentially, the Boston Red Sox might have the wherewithal to sign Skubal, but they’re listed at 22/1.
All told, the Tarik Skubal odds don’t favor anyone that doesn’t have the funds and is in a competitive window at the moment. That means that pretty much the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees would have realistic shots, even with the Mets not exactly being a championship club at this point.
Return to Dodgers Likeliest Outcome
The entire plan for Skubal in Los Angeles was to lead the Dodgers to a third-straight World Series. Of course, that did not materialize due to the Milwaukee Brewers finally breaking through.
But unless the Brewers, or the Tampa Bay Rays, for that matter, can defy the Tarik Skubal odds, it’s likely going to be a reunion with the Dodgers for the left-handed starter. There’s really no other team out there that can match Los Angeles’ championship pedigree, deep pockets, and overall allure.
There is no doubt that things can change in a hurry. But unless the Yankees are pretty much willing to outbid the Dodgers for Skubal, it’s most likely going to be a reunion at Chavez Ravine.
One final point: Los Angeles will have to move quickly if they want to sign Skubal before December 1. Otherwise, whatever groundwork may have been put down could change after a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is in place.
This article was originally published on HEAVY
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