Can veteran Edmonton Oilers goalie rebound? Trends are in his favour

One of the most refreshing things the Edmonton Oilers did this past summer was to place smart, low-cost bets on two goalies, one of the NHL’s oldest goalies in Frederik Andersen, and one of the youngest in Devon Levi.

This gave the Oilers three decent goalie bets heading into the 2026-27 season, as opposed to last season when Stuart Skinner was a decent bet to rebound, but Calvin Pickard had limited ability to carry the team, and Connor Ingram was a wildcard. Things worked out poorly for the Oilers with this strategy, with former Oilers goaltender Devan Dubnyk pointing out that a major reason Skinner failed in Edmonton was there was no other obvious goalie to carry the load when Skinner struggled, greatly ramping up the pressure on Skinner himself.

This year the three goalie strategy has already paid off, with Devon Levi stepping up after Andersen was injured this summer. The main question is whether or not Tristan Jarry can do the same. Jarry has had one poor game in net and one solid game. He is slated to get the start in Saturday night’s game in Utah.

There are a few trends working in his favour, at least if the Oilers aren’t expecting too much from him.

Jarry has a history in the NHL of starting out strong in the first three months of the season, then fading in January, February, March and April.

His save percentage over eight NHL seasons has been .912 in October, .920 in November, and .916 in December.

But in January it’s been .900, in February .902, in March .896, and in April .902, reports StatsMuse.com.

It’s almost like there are two goalies here, one who is a true No. 1 goalie at the start of the year, but one who barely hangs on as a back-up down the stretch.

Could the reason be that he simply breaks down physically in the second half of the season? It’s certainly been the case the past few seasons when he’s gotten injured and played poorly after that.

Jarry got heavy use as a starter in Pittsburgh for three straight seasons, 2021 to 2024. But his game crashed in 2024-25.

In recent years, he went from posting a high percentage of quality starts, where his save percentage was above the league average in games, to one who failed to provide quality starts with regularity.

He posted a quality start in more than 60 per cent of his games in 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2023-24, to having quality starts in just 49 percent of games in 2024-25, 48 per cent in 2025-26, and in just 31 per cent of his 19 games for Edmonton last year.

That is worrisome slippage. Again, it’s good the Oilers brought in both Andersen and Levi, as Jarry can’t be counted on.

But could it be that if used more sparingly that he’ll come through, that he won’t get so banged up and be able to get back closer to 60 per cent quality starts?

Last season Edmonton was super iffy on defence. The team gave up far too many of the most dangerous shots, the five-alarm shots as I call them. Last season, Edmonton gave up 6.8 five-alarm shots per game. That was a massive increase from the 5.8 per game the Oilers gave up in 2024-25 under Knoblauch.

So far this year under Babcock, Edmonton has given up just 6.1 five-alarm shots per game, making it easier for their goalies to thrive.

As a coach, Babcock stresses that he wants to cut down on the chaos for his goalies. He wants them to know where the shots are going to come from. So far, this approach has had some solid results.

Analytics expert Steve Valiquette, CEO of Clear Sight Analytics, made it clear that team defence against the rush is critical for the Oilers goalies if they’re going to succeed in giving the team quality starts.

On the Real Kyper and Bourne show recently, Valiquette points out that last season Tristan Jarry and Jesper Wallstedt of the Minnesota Wild faced the same amount of rush chances, but that Wallstedt’s save percentage was .936 on rush chances, but Jarry’s just .871.

This came down, in part, to the quality of the rush chances, Valiquette said. “The environment was considerably different. It was easier in Minnesota to play off the rush than it was in Edmonton.”

It’s one thing for a team to give up a two-on-one and force the puck carrier to take a shot from the faceoff dot. It’s another if that same puck carrier can make a cross-ice saucer pass to his attack partner, who then unleashes a one-timer shot. The shot from the dot isn’t an easy save, but it’s not nearly so difficult as that saucer-to-one-timer combo.

Edmonton essentially gave up far too many of those saucer-to-one-timer combos last year, which made it hell for the goalies.

Valiquette wondered how the Oilers would do in defending the rush this year with various line-up changes, such as Darnell Nurse moving out and Ryan Shea moving in.

The Edmonton Oilers are giving up fewer Grade A shots and five-alarm shots this year, but it’s too early to know whether they’ll stick to Babcock’s disciplined defensive approach.

The Oilers have had stretches of strong defensive play and structure in the past, only for that approach to go out the window.

But so far, so good.

And there’s no doubt that it’s helping both goalies, Levi and Jarry.

Edmonton took one step in solving its goalie issue by bringing in qualified candidates, but the biggest step is whether or not the team is serious about playing championship defence. Valiquette is right.

That is the main factor in what will make or break Levi, Andersen and Jarry this year.