Aaron is an aviation enthusiast and world traveler with a deep interest in aerospace history and technology. He has traveled around the world numerous times, often incorporating visits to aviation museums and historic aircraft collections into his journeys. A native of New Zealand, he is an expert in aviation and maintains a broad interest in a variety of other subjects.
The secret sauce to the United States Air Force's (USAF) impressive Thunderbirds display team is excellent training and discipline, along with well-engineered and maintained aircraft. In the 2026 season, the team is authorized to perform more than 60 demonstrations at over 30 locations, although the USAF's fact sheets cite a long-term figure of around 75 demonstrations annually.
When it comes to estimating safety and probabilities, the Thunderbirds' sorties and flight hour statistics are too small to establish a usable figure of statistical danger. Globally, the odds of a fast-jet demonstration sortie resulting in an aircraft crash are roughly 0.01-0.03% or around a one in 3,000 to 10,000 chance.
Over a year, roughly one to three such aircraft can be expected to be lost: the US Navy alone lost two this year. Whether this is a large or small risk depends on the frame of reference. For example, the odds of a commercial passenger flight being involved in a fatal accident are roughly one in 2.5 million to one in 4.7 million flights. That's around 1,000x safer.
The USAF's Iconic Thunderbirds Aerobatic Team
The Air Force's Thunderbirds' four-ship Diamond formation is iconic. During the maneuver, the pilots control their aircraft manually as they approach as close as 18 inches (0.45 meters) to each other. The Air Force says that "the diamond formation displays precise aerial teamwork and trust amongst the team as they fly only 18 inches apart, making it the most daring maneuver in the Thunderbirds' repertoire."
The Air Force also says the diamond formation showcases the "precision and training of the US Air Force pilots," as well as the capabilities of the F-16 Fighting Falcon. Current demonstrations are built around a four-ship Diamond, a six-ship Delta, two solo aircraft, and maneuvers that repeatedly break and reform those formations.
This article will focus more on the classic four-ship formation. The signature formation of the team is the four-aircraft Diamond. Here, Aircraft 1 leads Aircraft 2 and 3 on either side, while Aircraft 4 takes the rear position. Some of the maneuvers include the Diamond Loop, Diamond Roll, Diamond 360, Diamond PIR, Diamond Cloverloop, and Diamond Bottom-Up Pass.
The Navy's Blue Angels (flying F/A-18 Super Hornets) fly mostly the same maneuvers, but with a different routine. They both use a common vocabulary of formation aerobatics as they demonstrate broadly similar skills.
How Thunderbirds Fly The Diamond Formation
The USAF Air Demonstration Squadron is the aerobatic squadron of the US Air Force and is assigned to the 57th Wing. The unit is based at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, and has been operating for 73 years, having been founded in 1953. Along with the US Navy's Blue Angels (formed in 1946), it is among the world's oldest formal flying aerobatic teams.
The Thunderbirds' website explains that "the Thunderbirds perform for people all around the world to display the pride, precision, and professionalism the US Air Force represents. Through air shows and flyovers, they aim to excite and inspire." The Diamond Formation is flown with pilot-controlled visual reference, not an automated separation system.
|
Thunderbirds (per USAF) |
Role |
Current pilot |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
|
#1 |
Commander/Lead |
Alexander Prevandar |
Lieutenant Colonel |
|
#2 |
Left Wing |
Joshua Burress |
Major |
|
#3 |
Right Wing |
Brandon Maxson |
Major |
|
#4 |
Slot |
Tyler Clark |
Lieutenant Colonel |
|
#5 |
Lead Solo |
Laney Schol |
Major |
|
#6 |
Opposing Solo |
Bryce Turner |
Major |
While the F-16 Fighting Falcon has advanced fly-by-wire systems, the aircraft are controlled manually. To maintain the formation, pilots develop extremely precise visual references by having particular parts of the neighboring aircraft appear at a particular position in the pilot's canopy/HUD.
Pilots have to learn to suppress the instinct to look at the ground and instead concentrate on their formation references. The courage, skill, and professionalism of the team are promoted as a source of pride to the US Air Force and the United States writ large.
The Thunderbirds' Maneuvers & Breaks
There are some big formation maneuvers that are particularly impressive to see. The Diamond Loop sees the four-ship Diamond climb into a demanding vertical loop while maintaining formation. During the Diamond Roll, the whole four-ship formation rolls together, appearing almost as a single aircraft rotating on its longitudinal axis.
Another impressive maneuver, the Diamond 360, is when the Thunderbirds perform a 380-degree turn while maintaining formation. The Diamond Pitch Inverted Roll is where the group performs a maneuver that involves pitch and inverted flight while maintaining the formation.
Another maneuver worth noting is the Diamond Cloverloop, which is regarded as one of the Thunderbirds' most elaborate moves. It combines multiple directional changes into a clover-shaped flight path. For many spectators on the ground, the most visually impressive are often not the aircraft formation maneuvers themselves, but rather the 'break' maneuvers.
Notable ones include the Crossover Break, Stinger Cross Break, and the Bomb Burst. The Crossover Break has two elements approach each other and cross before breaking away. From the audience's line of sight, the aircraft appear to converge. The Bomb Burst is the classic "everything suddenly explodes outward" maneuver.
Is The Diamond Maneuver Safe?
The question of whether flying these formations and maneuvers is safe is a matter of perspective and definition. It depends on what 'safe' means. There was a 'Diamond Crash' in 1982 where all four Thunderbird T-38s, the entire four-aircraft Diamond unit, crashed and all four pilots perished. The Air Force then improved its training to avoid it happening again.
Military fighter jets are inherently dangerous to fly compared with commercial aircraft, as they are built for aerodynamic instability and warfighting. There were also Thunderbird crashes in 2003, 2018, and 2017. The pilot in 2003 ejected just 0.8 seconds before impact and survived.
In 2018, a pilot lost consciousness during a high-G maneuver, while the 2017 incident took place during landing. Neither was a mid-air Diamond collision. Excellent pilot training and aircraft maintenance allow the Air Force to accept a low level of managed risk, but it is not risk-free. Aerobatic crashes around the world are reasonably common.
A particularly bad example was the Commemorative Air Force Wings Over Dallas air show at Dallas Executive Airport in Texas mid-air collision in 2022. During that, six people died after a Boeing B-17 Flying Fortress and a Bell P-63 Kingcobra collided mid-air. In May 2026, a pair of US Navy EA-18G Growlers collided during an aerial demonstration at Mountain Home. All four crew ejected in time and survived.
The Team's Modified F-16s
While many of the world's aerobatic teams use trainer aircraft (such as the UK's Red Arrows), the Thunderbirds use the F-16 frontline fighter jet. The fleet is made up of six single-seat F-16Cs and two twin-seat F-16Ds. These are Block 52 aircraft received in 2008. Those Falcons are older aircraft that were originally built for operational fighter units and then extensively rebuilt for the Thunderbirds to function as aerobatic aircraft.
The underlying airframes are now 34–35 years old and were built in the early 1990s and were originally built as Block 32 aircraft before being converted to Block 52. The Block 52 designation is a description of the configuration after the aircraft were converted. The Fighting Falcons are powered by a single, but more powerful, Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 turbofan engine
Meanwhile, their weapons system has been removed for display configuration. The conversion included the addition of advanced avionics, structural modifications, and more, including being fitted with smoke generation systems.
These replaced the older Block 32 aircraft that had been built in 1986 and 1987 and operated by the Thunderbirds since 1992. The Air Force says these older retired Block 32 Thunderbird jets were converted "into combat-capable Block 52 F-16 aggressors for combat training purposes."
The May 2026 Growler Collision
Among the many demonstrator team incidents that can be listed around the world, the 2026 Navy's EA-18G Growler accident is particularly relevant. Two Boeing E/A-18 Growlers of the VAQ-129 'Vikings' Growler Demo Team were flying in formation at the Gunfighter Skies Airshow at Mountain Home AFB.
The collision was caught on film and shows one Growler approaching the other from behind and above. The Growler then struck the rear of the lead aircraft with its nose. In this case, the result was not a catastrophic collision and fireball explosion as could be expected from a Hollywood movie. Instead, the aircraft became entangled and started descending together almost as though they were dancing with each other.
The aircraft disentangled, fell, the pilots ejected, and then the aircraft exploded into a ball of fire after impacting the ground. The investigation is ongoing, and the Navy has not disclosed why the aircraft collided: pilot error is possible, but not yet established. The Thunderbirds may not have ever experienced a catastrophic mid-air Diamond collision with their F-16s (they have with T-38s).
Still, the May collision highlights that it is always a risk. The Growler demonstration was a relatively straightforward two-aircraft routine, not the dramatic Thunderbirds four-ship 18-inch Diamond. It can also be noted that the Thunderbirds team boasts very experienced pilots. Currently, it includes two Lieutenant Colonels and four Majors.
