While Iowa's U.S. Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson is shaping up to be quite a tight race, the state governor's race tells a different story. Democrat Rob Sand holds a clearer lead over Republican Zach Lahn, raising questions about why some voters may be willing to back a Democrat for governor while supporting a Republican for Senate.
Iowa is among this year's most competitive Senate races, as Turek and Hinson vie for the open seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Polls continue to show a tight race between the two after their first debate on October 7 where tariffs, immigration and voting records played a major role. A second debate was held last week, where again the candidates sparred over the Iran war, tariffs and immigration.
The governor's seat is also open this year, with Sand and Lahn competing to replace Republican Kim Reynolds who is not running for reelection. However, unlike the Senate race, polls between the gubernatorial candidates aren't nearly as tight. Sand has maintained an impressive lead over Lahn since the primaries, even among Republican pollsters.
Iowa hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008 when Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his reelection bid, and it's been even longer since Iowa voters have elected a Democratic governor, last doing so in 2006, when Chet Culver won.
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Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn: Latest Polls in the Iowa Governor Race
According to a round-up of polls compiled by the New York Times, Sand leads Lahn in every poll taken since at least the primaries in June and even before. In several cases, Sand has a double-digit lead over Lahn, and although "polls should be taken with a big grain of salt,” Timothy Hagle, a professor at the University of Iowa and an expert on Iowa politics, told Newsweek, Sand does seem to be performing better in the gubernatorial race than Lahn.
Six polls have come out in October, all showing Sand in the lead. They are:
- YouGov: A YouGov poll conducted between October 6 and 12 of 2,244 likely voters gave Sand a six-point lead over Lahn at 50 percent to Lahn's 44 percent, with 6 percent of those surveyed still undecided.
- Marist University: The Marist poll was conducted between October 8 and 11 and surveyed 1,100 likely voters, giving Sand a seven-point lead over Lahn at 52 percent to 45 percent, with 3 percent of polltakers undecided.
- Emerson College: This poll surveyed 650 likely voters between October 5 and 6, giving Sand a narrower lead over Lahn at 49 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
- CNN/SSRS: This poll was conducted between September 29 and October 5 and surveyed 801 likely voters, giving Sand a nine-point lead at 51 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent saying "neither" and 2 percent saying "someone else."
- Suffolk University: This poll surveyed 500 likely voters between October 1 and 4 and gave Sand a 12-point lead over Lahn at 55 percent to 43 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
- New York Times/Siena University: This poll was held between September 22 and October 1 and surveyed 606 likely voters. Sand had an impressive lead here too, at 52 percent to Lahn's 41 percent. Seven percent of polltakers were unsure.
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: Latest Polls in the Iowa Senate Race
The same round-up by the Times for the Hinson-Turek race for Senate is much tighter. Turek led in three of the polls, while Hinson led in the other three.
The polls are:
- YouGov: A YouGov poll conducted between October 6 and 12 of 2,245 likely voters gave Turek a narrow lead over Hinson at 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of voters still undecided.
- Marist University: The Marist poll was conducted between October 8 and 11 and surveyed 1,100 likely voters, giving Turek a three-point lead over Hinson, at 48 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent still undecided.
- Emerson College: This poll surveyed 650 likely voters between October 5 and 6. Hinson led in this poll by two points, at 47 percent to Turek's 45 percent, with 2 percent of polltakers still undecided.
- CNN/SSRS: This poll was conducted between September 29 and October 5 and surveyed 801 likely voters. Hinson also led here by two points at 45 percent to Turek's 43 percent with 8 percent saying "neither" and 3 percent saying "someone else."
- Suffolk University: This poll surveyed 500 likely voters between October 1 and 4. Turek had a four-point lead here, at 48 percent to Hinson's 44 percent, with 2 percent of polltakers saying they planned to vote for libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn and 6 percent saying they didn't know who they would vote for.
- New York Times/Siena University: This poll was conducted between September 22 and October 1 and surveyed 606 likely voters. Hinson had a narrow lead over Turek with 48 percent to 47 percent. Five percent of voters said they didn't know who they would vote for.
Why Do Some Iowans Favor Democratic Candidate Rob Sand but Not Josh Turek?
Experts explained that there are several reasons why Sand might be more favored among Iowa voters than Turek, even though both are Democrats vying for different political seats.
For one, Sand has "greater name recognition" than Turek, said John Geer, Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University who specializes in public opinion, as Sand previously ran for Iowa state auditor in 2018 and won. Sand was reelected to the position in 2022.
"And as part of those previous efforts, Sand has developed a strong reputation with moderate and independent voters," Geer told Newsweek. "It is also true that Turek’s opponent, Hinson, is a strong contender who is well positioned to make this run."
Hagle also noted Sand's popularity, adding that in addition to winning two statewide races, Sand has participated in numerous townhalls.
"Lahn, on the other hand, was a surprise winner of the Republican nomination. He’s far less known, even among Republicans, so he’s been playing catchup since the primary," Hagle told Newsweek. "Lahn did well for himself in the gubernatorial debates so far, but it’s hard to say whether No Party voters are actually tuning in for them."
Independent voters who are not registered with a specific political party make up an impactful part of the state’s electorate, and they are among the most likely voters to choose a split-ticket at the ballot box come Election Day. Hagle stressed that independent voters are more likely to vote for incumbents.
However, when it comes to the Iowa Senate race, Hinson is better known, Hagle said, as she currently represents Iowa in Congress as a representative.
"Turek is a sitting state legislator, but from a district on the far western part of the state," Hagle said. "He had a tough primary fight, so that helped his name recognition, but he’s still well behind Hinson in that regard. In the debates, it wasn’t surprising that Hinson demonstrated a better command of the issues and was able to provide details that Turek couldn’t."
Despite the differences in Sand's and Turek's leads over their Republican opponents, Hagle and Geer said it's possible both Democrat candidates could win their respective elections.
"It looks like a strong Democratic year, so both could win," Geer told Newsweek. "That would say a lot about Trump’s standing in farm country. But no one should count out Hinson. She might be able to buck the likely Democratic tide."
Why Is Iowa an Important State in the 2026 Midterms?
This year's midterm elections could flip control of the House and Senate as Republican candidates work to overcome widespread concerns from voters tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs, and the Iran war. Although Iowa has voted Republican in the Senate elections since 2008, the state has also had a history of voting for presidential candidates from both political parties, making the current political environment a competitive one. President Donald Trump won Iowa the last three election cycles, but before that, President Barack Obama won Iowa twice.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.