PETALING JAYA: A political analyst believes PAS is in a stronger position than Umno in Melaka, and expects the Islamic party to be more than a "junior" partner in the event of an alliance.
Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said the notion that PAS's strength was limited to its stronghold states up north and in the east coast was outdated, Sinar Harian reported.
He cited the results of the 2022 general election (GE15), where Perikatan Nasional (PN) – now led by PAS – won significantly more seats than BN in Perak, Selangor and even Melaka.
In GE15, Umno-led BN failed to win a single parliamentary seat in Melaka. Pakatan Harapan (PH) and PN secured three each.
Wong said new voters had largely supported PN over BN, while PH succeeded in mobilising its supporters to go out and cast their ballots.
"From the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls, two factors will still apply in Melaka: the consolidation of BN and PAS votes, plus the deterioration of PH support."
He said BN and "PAS Plus" – a reference to the Islamic party and its PN allies – could win up to 24 seats in the Melaka polls, but questioned how many each bloc would be allocated to contest.
"PAS is in the lead (in terms of support) in 13 seats, including the Tanjung Bidara seat previously won by chief minister and state Umno chairman (Ab Rauf Yusoh).
"Is Umno now in a much stronger position than in GE15, given the latest charges involving Tabung Haji and Felda, as well as Najib Razak's house arrest and the plot to oust the Negeri Sembilan ruler?
"If Umno dares to go solo in Melaka, PAS Plus could end up becoming the largest bloc in the state assembly," he said.
Wong said PAS was expected to demand a more even split of the seats, as well as more representatives in the state executive council, should their alliance win the state polls.
Melaka voters go to the polls on Nov 14.
BN has yet to confirm its alliances for the state election, although PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang claims they have reached an agreement in principle.