As the super El Niño weather system continues to strengthen ahead of its expected peak in December, there are growing concerns in Somalia about its impact on food security.
The International Committee of the Red Cross is warning that farmers face a devastating gamble.
It said they are having to choose between planting crops and risking losing everything to floodwaters, or to leave their fields bare and face increased hunger in the coming year.
Nuh Adan, a farmer and community leader in Bayahaaw, said there are fears that if the riverbanks burst, the impact on local agriculture will last for months.
“If the river breaks and the floods hit us, the effects will last until the next rainy season in March,” he said.
Somalia is consistently ranked by international organisations as being among the top regions at risk during El Niño cycles.
A similar phenomenon in 2023 caused havoc, affecting close to two million people and displacing half a million.
Kamillo Muse, a resident of Ceeynu Nasri displacement camp in Jowha, said they are “terrified” of the upcoming rains.
“If it pours, forget those living in displacement camps, even people in proper houses will be forced to flee. So what do you expect will happen to us in the camps," she said.
Aid agencies are on high alert, rolling out proactive measures building on lessons learned from the 2023 disaster to mitigate damage before the floodwaters arrive.
Antoine Grand, head of the ICRC in Somalia said they are probably better prepared about where the floods might take place and what will be safe high ground.
Better preparation and better data, he said, is good news compared to 2023.
“The bad news is that humanitarian funding and capacity in general have seriously decreased due to drastic reduction in humanitarian funding since 2025,” said Grand.
This has weakened the ICRC’s capacity to prepare for and respond to the expected floods. In partnership with the Somali Red Crescent Society, it is doing what it can to prepare.
They are distributing sandbags, prepositioning essential supplies in flood prone areas, and stocking supported health facilities with medical and nutrition supplies to ensure they remain operational.